So the Rangers just committed huge money to Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. Today's issue in our continuing analysis of the signings is whether the Rangers had any cheaper and/or better options available to them.
Before we get into the details, let's lay a foundation: First, I believe the Rangers have a very special two year window of opportunity within which to win a Stanley Cup (or two!). Therefore, management is wholly justified in taking an aggressive approach in an attempt to capitalize on this opportunity. Second, this window of opportunity revolves around Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is the member of an endangered species in the NHL: the true Franchise Player. He is a truly gifted offensive force. His skill often causes opponents to change their game plan in an attempt to neutralize him. Since he is our franchise player, in order to maximize his impact and team chemistry, the team must be "built" around him, i.e. an offensive up-tempo team. There is no question that the Rangers defense is suspect. As much as we needed to shore up our center ice position, we also need a number one d-man. However, in a salary cap world where money is an issue, you can't address all your needs. You have to make choices. Since the team is built around Jagr, I believe that the first priority has to be to solidify the offense (as a side note, as justified as "going for it all" is for this franchise, management still has to preserve the future. That's another reason why I believe that focusing on forwards was the correct approach for this club: the Rangers have some excellent prospects on defense. Going out and signing veteran defenseman to huge contracts would eat up the ice time these prospects need in order to properly develop). Now that we've got the foundation in place, let's get back to the question: was signing Gomez and Drury the best option or were there other cheaper and/or better alternatives available?
The first place management should have looked was within. Does the team have any prospects in the system that could play a significant role as a first or second line center on a Stanley Cup contending team within the next season or two? To me, the answer is no. The Rangers do not have any "blue chip" prospects at the center ice position. Certainly no one who could step in as a legitimate first or second line guy come playoff time. I'm not knocking our prospects, I'm simply being realistic. If you want to win the cup, you can't turn one of your top two offensive lines over to a "B" level prospect. Since we don't have anyone in the system to take the spot, management has to look outside the club for options.
Trades are tough, because you've got to give in order to get. The team would end up weakening itself at one position in order to get stronger at another. A team like the Rangers, which relies so heavily on Jagr, doesn't really have the depth necessary to trade for a top center. Additionally, how many top line center iceman are available. Rumors swirl about Patrick Marleu, Vinny Lecavalier and/or Brad Richards. Our most trade-able asset is probably Al Montoya ( a "blue chip" goaltending prospect). San Jose doesn't need a goalie prospect (they've got solid goaltending and they want to win NOW, they're not looking to develop a goalie). Tampa, on the other hand needs a goalie. I'd love Vinny but could we get him for Al Montoya? Definitely not. The pot would have to be sweetened considerably. However, if the Rangers "sweeten the pot" we create a weakness at a different position(s). Obviously, that doesn't work. What about Richards? rumor has it that Tampa would love to relive cap pressure by trading away either Martin St. Louis or Richards. Perhaps they'd be desperate enough to trade Richards for a package highlighted by Montoya. But does that make sense for the Rangers? Why waste one of your few top trading chips (remember, the presence of Lundqvist makes Montoya expendable without creating a hole in the goaltendong position- especially since the Rangers drafted another goalie with their second pick in this seasons draft), on Brad Richards and his $7.8m cap charge when you can sign Gomez for a $7.3m cap charge and use your trading chip to strengthen a different position? That leaves us with the double edged sword of unrestricted free agency!
So we're left with going the free agency route. The first question is, wouldn't it have been better to resign Nylander and then target either Drury or Gomez. Why sign both players for over $7m each? The savings we would have received by resigning Nylander could have been applied to a much needed defenseman. The reality is that the Rangers would have saved about $2.5m per year by resigning Nylander (Washington gave him nearly $5m per year for four years). $2.5m per year is not enough to sign an impact defenseman in todays market. More importantly, had the Rangers matched Washington's offer they'd be paying Nylander nearly $5m per year until the guy was pushing 40 years old. Not a smart idea, both Gomez and Drury are significantly younger. The Rangers made the right call letting Nylander walk.
The next question is, weren't there any other free agents the Rangers could have signed for less money and shorter contract terms? Of course! But before we jump to conclusions, let's look at the players individually:
Scott Gomez: The Rangers need a legitimate first line center. They don't have one in the system. They certainly don't have one who will be ready to contribute meaningfully during the Jagr Window. Gomez fits the bill and he's only 27. A lot of people say that signing unrestricted free agents to huge contracts is a recipe for disaster and it rarely works from a historical perspective. But how many big time UFA's were signed at the age of 27? Yes we signed him to a long contract, however, at the expiration of his contract he'll still be younger than Nylander is right now! Yes we paid him huge dollars but everyone knows that UFA contracts are often higher than usual (that's why they're not used as comparables during salary arbitration).
Chris Drury: I'm much more skeptical about this one! Don't get me wrong, I love the guy as a player. However, he is on the wrong side of 30 (albeit not by much) and he is, at best, a second line player. We're paying an awful lot of money for a second line center! However, I do give Sather the benefit of the doubt on this one because: (1) he is the best option for the job during the Jagr Window and (2) the Rangers long term cap outlook is not nearly as bleak as some would suggest (we'll get to that in a later post).
So we've established that Gomez and Drury were the best options in this years free agent class. But what about next years class? Maybe next year would have presented better alternatives? After all, the Jagr window will last at least two seasons. Who knows, maybe Jagr will play a third season as well? Did it make sense to tie up the top two center positions now, or should we have kept an opening available for free agent center iceman next year or the year after that? To answer that question, I'll give you a team by team breakdown of notable free agent forwards expected to become available in the 2-3 years (I got the info from nhlnumbers.com). I think you'll see that for the most part, Gomez and Drury are the best options available. (The list contains the players name, position, date of birth and the year in which his current contract expires along with my comments in italics):
Calgary:
None.
Colorado:
Joe Sakic, Center, July 7, 1969, current contract expires at the end of the 2007-08 season. He'll be too old.
Edmonton:
None.
Minnesota:
Marian Gaborik, Winger, February 14, 1982, Current contract expires at the end of the 2008-09 season. I don't see Minnesota letting him go. Additionally, the Rangers are stocked at the wing. Finally, the Jagr Window will be closed.
Pavel Demitra, Winger, November 29, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Not a centerman, old, not nearly as good of a fit as the guys we got.
Vancouver:
Markus Naslund, Winger, July 30, 1973, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. See analysis for Pavel Demitra!
Sedin Twins, September 26, 1980, current contracts expire following the 2008-09 season. Probably too late for the Jagr Window. only one of them plays center but they'll probably insist on signing as a package.
Brendan Morrison, Center, August 15, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. He'll be older then both guys we signed and he's not in their league.
Anaheim:
Todd Bertuzzi, Winger, February 2, 1975, Current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Wrong position, probably too late for the Jagr Window, he'll be too old and he's already got serious injury problems.
Rob Neidermayer, Center, December 28, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. He'll be too old, probably too late for Jagr window, he's not nearly as good as either player we signed.
Dallas:
None.
Los Angeles:
None.
Phoenix:
None.
San Jose:
Patrick Marleau, Center, September 15, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. He's a good one! I don't see S.J. letting him go for nothing. If they somehow did, the bidding would be fierce as the pickings will be much slimmer next off-season for teams in the free agent hunt for center-men. Would you risk loosing the Jagr window to try to sign a guy who might not even make it to free agency? I wouldn't.
Chicago:
Martin Havlat, Winger, April 19, 1981, current contract expires after the 2008-09 season. Great player! But he's not a centerman, we'd probably miss the Jagr Window and it's very unlikely that he'll reach free agency: G-d knows Chicago has no cap issues! and I don't see them letting this guy walk.
Columbus:
Sergei Federov, Center, December 13, 1969, current contract expires following the 2007-08 season. You guys can figure this one out!
Detroit:
Henrik Zetterberg, Winger, October 9, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. See the comments for Havlat, minus the cap issue joke!
Nashville:
J.P. Dumont, Winger, April 1, 1978, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. This guy doesn't address the teams needs.
David Legwand, Center, August 17, 1980, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. This guy doesn't compare to the guys we signed. Would you hang your hat on David Legwand?
St. Louis:
Keith Tkachuk, why did I even list him?
Doug Weight, Center, January 21, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. No comment!!!
Boston:
None.
Buffalo:
Tim Conolly, Center, May 7, 1981, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Probably too late for the Jagr window. I wouldn't put the plans for a victory parade on hold for two years to try to get this guy.
Ales Kotalik, Winger, December 23, 1978, current contract expires following the 2008-09 season. See my comments for Conolly. Also, this guy plays the wrong position. However, I'd consider signing him just for his first name (that's for you Moss)!
Montreal:
Saku Koivu, Center, November 23, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. You can figure this out.
Alex Kovalev, Winger, February 24, 1973, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Ditto!
Ottawa:
Danny Heatley, Winger, January 21, 1981, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. I love this guy! So does every G.M. in the league, that's why I don't see him hitting the market. I wouldn't pass up on Gomez or Drury to leave space available for him because (1) I don't think he'll really be available and (2) we could still sign him if he becomes available (I'll be writing a post regarding the Rangers long term CAP outlook shortly) Even though he's a winger and we don't need those in the foreseeable future, Heatley's the kind of a guy you get no matter what if you can do so.
Toronto (Eh!- that's another one for Moss- and thedirtyboy!)
Mats Sundin, Center, February 13, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. You get the picture!
New Jersey:
Brian Gionta, Winger, January 18, 1979, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Let's see, Scott Gomez or Brian Gionta? hmmm...
New York Isles:
Miro Satan, Winger, October 22, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Why would anyone want to leave Long Island?!?!
Philadelphia:
None.
Pittsburgh:
Evgeni Malkin, Center, July 31, 1986, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.
Sidney Crosby, Center, August 7, 1987, current contract expires following 2007-08 season, see comments below.
Jordan Staal, Center, October 10, 1988, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.
The above three players will be RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS upon the expiration of their respective contracts. I mention them here because it's possible that one of them ( no not Crosby and probably not Malkin either) will have to be traded. I'd love to land any one of them. However, this is pure speculation and if I were Sather I certainly wouldn't pass up on an opportunity to win the cup with Gomez and Drury in order to be prepared for the possibility that one of these guys might be put on the trading block.
Ryan Malone, Winger, December 1, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.
Atlanta
Marian Hossa, Winger, January 12, 1979, contract expires following 2007-08 season. IF he becomes a free agent he'll get huge offers (even though he forgets to suit up in the playoffs!) Would I love to have him anyway? Of course. Does he fill a Rangers need? No. 'Nuff said.
Bobby Holik, 'Nuff said!
Carolina:
Erik Cole, Winger, November 6, 1978, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Yawn.
Florida:
None.
Tampa Bay:
Vinny Lecavalier, Center, April 21, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Even if he makes it to free agency it would be tough to land him. Go through my list, how many quality centerman did you see in Vinny's year? This season you had three somewhat evenly matched centerman and a bunch of lower level guys who could play. The competition for them was fierce. What do you think will happen when the supply of quality players is significantly less?
Vaclav Prospal, Center, February 17, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Yawn.
Chris Gratton, Center, July 5, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Bigger Yawn.
After reviewing this list, I think it's safe to say that Gomez and Drury were the best options. I'm not giving my stamp of approval just yet, there's still more analysis to be done! Until next time....Good night and G-d bless.
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