The Hockey Rabbi

Ramblings

So I'm driving home from work this evening listening to WFAN.  Steve Sommers, my all time favorite is on the air.  The schmooze takes a call from some guy who rambles on about how the NHL must have fixed the Rangers-Pens series in order to make sure that Crosby advances in the tournament.  Hmmmm.....  Let's see.....

Does the NHL want Pittsburgh to advance?  Of course.  Did the NHL sabotage the Rangers to make sure Pittsburgh wins?  Please.   However, I will give the conspiracy theorists this:  isn't it strange that when watching a game on a local network like, say, MSG, when a goal is being reviewed, the local network gives you every possible replay angle so that you can effectively make the call for yourself.  Yet when watching games on NHL networks like Versus or NBC, you barely get even a simple replay.  What's that all about?  Does the NHL want us to take their word for it?  Are they afraid that by giving us all the looks, we might catch them making a mistake? 

Guess who's going to be a restricted free agent after next season?  Evgeny "Slew Foot" Malkin.  If the Pens are crazy enough to let him get to July 1 without a new contract, I can see Glenn Sather personally backing the Brinks truck up to Malkin's door.  How does a 10 year maximum contract front loaded to the greatest extent permitted by the CBA sound?  I can hear the good folks in Pittsburgh PA whining already!

So Drury takes a blatant stick to the face.  He's cut so badly the blood had to be scraped out of the ice.  Obviously, none of the on-ice officials see anything.  Tom Renney, of course, makes no attempt to protest the missed call.  What was Tom Terrific thinking?  "What does a guy have to do to get fired around here???" 

 

Did I mention how well Chris Drury did the "little things" in round 1?!?!

   

Here We Go!

The regular season starts tomorrow night!  Unfortunately for me, it's a Jewish holiday so I will not be able to watch the game. 

The hockey world is filled with previews and predictions.  There's not much to add in those categories.  Besides, making predictions is really more for entertainment than anything else.  Especially in the new NHL where parity reigns supreme.  The truth is that there really isn't a team in the league that's dominant from top to bottom.  Many teams have overwhelming strengths.  Yet they all have fairly significant weaknesses as well.  Ultimately, the last team standing in June of 2008 will be determined primarily by hot goaltending and good health as opposed to any other factor(s).  That being said, I've prepared my top five lists.  I've got two lists for you here:  (1) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Win The Stanley Cup This Season and (2) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Not Win The Stanley Cup This Season.  Here we go!

I.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHYTHE RANGERS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  Offense.  This team is stacked up front.  The Rangers are quite possibly the deepest offensive team in the league.  Jagr, Gomez, Drury, Shanahan, Straka, Avery and Prucha.  That list doesn't even include Marcel Hossa (who came alive late last season) or the up and coming rookie Nigel Dawes (who may very well get a shot with the big club this season).  The Rangers have scorers on each of their top three lines. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  He's the King on Broadway.  After a slow start last season he really came alive to carry the team through their unbelievable run down the stretch.  He gives the team the confidence it needs to play an offensively oriented game.  When he's hot he gets into shooters' heads forcing them to try to pick their spots carefully, too carefully!

3.  Jaromir Jagr.  Yes he fits into reason number 1 (offense).  But Jagr is literally in a category of his own!  He's an old school super star who can literally change the course of a game (or a series) by himself.  To me Jagr is the Rangers' nuclear weapon.  His skill and game breaking ability are virtually unparalleled.  If opponents don't match up against him, he'll break the game open.  If they do match up against him, they'll be forced to pay less attention to the team's other stars.  A no loose situation for the Rangers!  Most importantly, he's in great shape and appears to be determined to win it all. 

4.  Transition/Speed.  This team can fly.  Period.  Of the top 9 forwards, 7 of them have serious wheels:  Jagr, Drury, Straka, Gomez, Prucha, Callahan and Avery.  As weak as the defense is, Roszival, Mara, Tyutin, Pock and Staal all have respectable mobility.  They can all make outlet passes as well.  We're obviously not going to have flashbacks of Leetch and Zubov, however, this team should be able to get down the ice in a hurry.

5.  Grit.  The Rangers are not what you would call a big bruising team.  Nonetheless, they do possess a handsome serving of team grit.  Avery loves the rough stuff.  Drury plays a fearless in your face style.  Shanny's big and strong (albeit slow!) and he's earned high marks for dropping the gloves in the preseason to stand up for teammates.  Jagr may not be tough but he's absolutely huge.  Trying to get body position on him will wear out even the biggest and strongest opponents.  Prucha and Callahan are fearless cannonballs.  Dubinsky is a big strong physical presence.  Even Gomez has good size (5'11" 200lbs.) and is used to playing Atlantic division hockey.  Hollweg is a physical presence.  Betts is a gritty player and Colton Orr is a legitimate heavyweight.  On defense, Roszival and Tyutin played like warriors down the stretch.  Although neither is overly physical, they both have good size and know how to use their bodies.  Strudwick is a tough player.  Staal has good size (although he is young and has some filling out to do) and he seems to be proficient at playing the angles well.  Malik has great size... forget it!   The bottom line is that although no one will mistake this team for the old Broad Street Bullies, the Broadway Blueshirts can handle the physical demands of a long and grueling Stanley Cup tournament.      

II.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHY THE RANGERS WILL NOT WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY.  The Rangers' opening night roster will apparently feature up to 10 new players who were not on the opening night roster last season.  That's a huge turnover.  An adjustment period seems inevitable.  If that happens, it's not outside the realm of possibility for the Rangers to find themselves in the same boat they were in last season: being forced to play playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the posteason.  The Rangers' offense is their strength, yet we don't even know if the forwards will form a cohesive unit.  The Gomez-Jagr experiment has already been put on the back burner (for now) and the season hasn't even started!  Chemistry makes the Rangers' offense a double edged sword: it could turn out to be tops in the league or it could wind up being far less then the sum of its (very significant) parts. 

2.  Defense.  Enough said!

3.  #2 Goalie.  Right now there is none.  At least not an NHLer.  Even though Lundqvist is expected to play the lion's share of games, it is very important to have a reliable back up.  It's one thing to play 70 games a season because you are an elite goaltender who can and should carry that kind of a load.  It's a very different thing to play 70 games in a season in part because there is no adequate back up.  The latter creates a lot of unnecessary stress and pressure.  Goaltending is already the most psychologically grueling position in the sport, Hank doesn't need any extra adversity. 

4.  The "Kid" Line.  The 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or......  Dubinsky may prove ill suited to handle the pressure of anchoring an important line for a contending team in his rookie season.  Callahan was impressive down the stretch, but he's also a rookie having played a grand total of 24 NHL games in his career (regular season and playoffs combined).  2/3's of the Rangers' kid line has a grand total of 30 games of NHL experience between them (regular season and playoffs combined).  Then there's the Prucha factor: he looks ready to break out.  Is it in his best interests to be lined up with two gritty rookies rather then on a more offensively oriented line?  Prucha had great chemistry with Jagr as a rookie.  Why not put him on Jagr's left and move Straka to the left of Dubinsky?  The Rangers don't really have a pure goal scorer in the prime of his career right now.  Prucha could be that guy.  But will he be while playing with Dubinsky and Callahan?  Like I said, the 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or...... 

5.  Specialty Teams/Flow.  Another double edged sword for the Rangers.  On paper, the specialty teams look to be pretty impressive.  However, could this be a case of relying on too few players to do too many things?  Drury will get significant time on the power play, penalty kill and even strength.  Ditto for Shanny. Ditto for Avery.  Ditto for Straka.  Maybe even a ditto for Gomez.  In fact, Blair Betts seems to be the only player who will not be asked to "do it all".  In the "New NHL" a lot of time is spent on special teams play.  If many of the teams top players on on the ice killing penalties, who does Renney send out for that very important first even strength shift? Jagr will be rested, but Straka and Drury won't be.  Gomez may be rested but Shanny and Avery won't be.  Renney will be forced to mix and match his lines which hurts the teams' flow.  The same thing will happen after power plays.  Apparently, Renney has recognized this potential problem and has decided to keep his top two lines primarily intact for power plays.  That will make it easier for him (although certainly not easy) to continue rolling his lines after the power play is over.  You might think that I'm being hyper sensitive here, but these little things make a big difference in a long season and an even longer (in some respects!) playoff tournament.      

It should be a great season in New York.  Here we go!                

You Can't Hurry Love

Did you ever try to set someone up on a date?  You have this buddy that's single and your wife or girlfriend has a friend that's also single and you think that they'd be perfect for each other.  You know the drill, you have your wife/girlfriend call her friend while you call your buddy.  You tell your buddy how perfect this girl is for him and your wife/girlfriend does the same on her end.  Everyone's all excited, your friends agree to exchange numbers and ultimately they go out on their date.  Nine out of ten times it just doesn't work!  Maybe their expectations were too high after getting hyped up about the "perfect" date.  Maybe there's a bit too much pressure knowing that all of their friends will be waiting to hear about how things went.  Maybe the atmosphere is just too artificial and too planned.  Maybe it's all of the above! 

Then there's this scenario: You've got a buddy that's single.  Your wife/girlfriend has a friend that's also single.  Once again, you think that they'd be perfect for each other.  So you plan a night out with a bunch of your friends.  You invite a bunch of friends including your single friend and your wife/girlfriend's single friend.  You might make casual reference to your single friends that there's going to be someone there that you'd like them to meet.  Or maybe you don't say anything at all.  You get the two of them together in a nice relaxed atmosphere with no preconceived notions or expectations.  They're each just part of a larger group that's gone out for a night of fun.  At some point in the night, they talk to each other.  No pressure, no expectations, just some conversation.  Maybe sparks fly, maybe they don't.  The bottom line is that you just let the chips fall where they may.  Even if sparks don't fly right off the bat, if they've made a pleasant impression on each other there's nothing stopping you from suggesting that they go out at some later date.  They've already met, they've already gotten to know each other a bit and all of a sudden it's not a "blind date" anymore.  Not surprisingly, this second scenario has a much higher success rate!  We probably all know of someone who has met their significant other on a group outing. 

By now you're probably wondering what the heck I'm talking about?!?!  Isn't it somewhat obvious?  I'm talking about the Rangers' line combinations!  Conventional wisdom says that Gomez will start with Jagr and Drury will start with Avery and Shanny.  Up until today, I've agreed with those combinations.  But over lunch today it hit me: you can't hurry love! 

Here's my proposal:  Let's not force Jagr and Gomez into a relationship!  Moreover, let's not even allow them to "date"right away!  Instead, let's start the season playing Jagr with some of his old running mates.  Here's what I propose:

Hossa- Straka- Jagr

Avery- Gomez- Shanny

Prucha- Drury- Callahan

We know from past experience that Jagr will be able to function with Straka and Hossa.  That line may not be as effective as the Jagr-Nylander combo was, but it will be functional.  More importantly, there will be no unnecessary pressure on the first line to try to manufacture instant chemistry. 

Starting Gomez on the second line will allow him to be the puck carrier and play maker he has always been.  More importantly, lining Gomez with Shanny and Avery will create much less pressure on Gomez to immediately manufacture chemistry.  He won't have the pressure and the expectations of having to immediately mesh with #68.  The guy will have enough on his plate early on as he adjusts to life in the Big Apple.

Drury with Prucha and Callahan could be a blessing in disguise.  On the one hand, you'd like to try to keep your top players on the top two lines in order to maximize each players ice time.  On the other hand, Drury's high energy and high intensity game might blend very well with young, hungry, gritty and skilled players (especially Prucha). 

By setting the lines this way, Renney would be taking a lot of the pressure off of his players to deliver instant success.  Ultimately, the best thing for the team would be for either Gomez or Drury to click with Jagr.  However, with so many early season adjustments in store for this team, is it really necessary to hurry things?  There will be plenty of opportunities as the season progresses to get Gomez and Jagr together.  Perhaps they can start their "relationship" on the power play.  Inevitably, the Rangers will have to juggle lines during the course of a game.  Maybe Drury and Straka will be exhausted after long penalty kills necessitating a quick shift for Jagr and Gomez.  Perhaps a player will go down with an injury and Jagr and Gomez will have to hit the ice together.  Eventually, they'll have a good shift together and progress as a line in a more natural and less forced manner.

The regular season is a funny thing.  On the one hand it sometimes seems unnecessarily long.  On the other hand it can get late very early with a bad start.  The line combinations that I propose minimize the "getting to know you" stage as much as possible.  The worst thing that can happen to this club would be for it to stumble badly out of the gate.  The Rangers have nothing to loose by bringing Jagr and Gomez together slowly.  On the other hand, a forced relationship that gets off to a rocky start could have more long lasting and disastrous consequences.

Make no mistake, this is not a reaction to the embarrassing Philly loss.  It's certainly not a case of pushing the "panic button".  It's simply a recognition that you can't hurry love!  Let me know how you'd like to see Renney line 'em up.                     

Dear Glen: Sign Peca!

I've been getting a lot of complaints about my long hiatus.  I must say, it's pretty flattering!  Anyway, by now everyone has heard the growing speculation that the Rangers may be on the verge of signing Michael Peca.  According to John Dellapina, the hold up is that Slats & Co. are still deciding whether to go with Peca or one of the teams youngsters(Dubinsky or Anisimov).  Here's my open letter to Slats advocating the signing of Peca.  But first, a few ground rules:

1.  The contract must be for only 1 year;

2.  The salary must be $1.5m or less;

3.  The contract must not contain any form of "no trade" or "no movement" clauses; and

4.  Peca must pass his medical exams.

Assuming that those four points are met, here goes:

Dear Glen:

As a lifelong Ranger fan I feel compelled to thank you and your staff for turning things around on Broadway.  Enough with the pleasantries! SIGN MICHAEL PECA!  We're making a serious run for the Cup this season.  In order to do that, we need a legitimate third line centerman. 

The current roster does not have a player that can adequately fill that role:  (1) Martin Straka is not a natural centerman.  After last seasons playoff defeat it was plain for all to see that Straka was a weak link at center.  That's certainly not a knock against Marty, it simply is what it is.  The guy is an offensive minded (albeit defensively responsible) winger.  Additionally, he is certainly not a third line center (a role that is ideally filled by a defensive minded "energy" player).  (2)  Sean Avery is not an option either.  Avery thrived with the ice time and responsibility afforded to a top six forward.  Putting him on the third line will hinder his play.  Management is responsible for getting the most out of its assets (i.e., players), putting Avery on the third line runs counter to that responsibility.  (3)  Dubinsky and Anisimov look like excellent prospects.  Are either of them ready for the responsibility of anchoring the third line?  Playing in New York is tough.  Playing in New York when expectations are sky high is even tougher.  Does it make sense to throw either player into the fire when so much is at stake?  Will the development of either player be stunted by sending them to Hartford for another season?  If not, the risk reward ratio seems like a no brainer.  Besides, Peca will probably not play a full season which means either Dubinsky or Anisimov will get some playing time with the big club next season anyway. 

Let's not forget Prucha and Callahan.  Both players are heading into important seasons.  Prucha must regain his rookie form and prove that his weak play for much of last season was an aberration.  Callahan, on the other hand, must prove that his strong play down the stretch last season was not an aberration.  In all likelihood, Prucha and/or Callahan will be playing on the third line this season.  Is it fair to either of them to play with a rookie centerman at this critical juncture in their respective careers?  Both guys can and should play vital roles for our club for years to come.  Wouldn't it be wise to give them the greatest chance at succeeding by playing them with an experienced player like Peca? 

Peca will also add tremendous value as a penalty killer.  With the losses of Cullen and Ortmeyer, the team's penalty killing unit has taken a hit.  Sure Drury can kill penalties.  However, he's also going to be getting a lot of even strength ice time as well as power play ice time.  Why saddle him with primary PK responsibilities as well? 

Peca is a great face-off man as well.  Winning face-offs means greater puck possession.  For a team like New York with its questionable blue line, winning face offs is essential.  Loosing a defensive zone draw can cost us a game.  Lundqvist's weak puck control skills only exacerbates the problem.  Having a reliable face off man will take tremendous pressure off of our defense, don't underestimate this point.  Sure, Drury can take face-offs, but again, how much ice time can Drury be expected to handle?  If we have to use Drury for all of our defensive zone draws, will he be available for the offensive zone draws?  Will we be forced to disrupt our line changes in order to get Drury on the ice for every important draw (offensive and defensive?).

Finally, some people are saying that the money that the team would spend on Peca should be spent on a defenseman instead.  Granted, the blue line needs help.  However, where are you going to find a defenseman who can have the same potential impact as Michael Peca for $1.5m or less?  Adding another marginal d-man will not help this club and we don't have the cap space to add anything more than a marginal d-man.  Therefore, we are much better off spending a small sum for Peca (a guy who can add a lot to the team) as opposed to adding a marginal defenseman.

Glen, for whatever it's worth, I say go out and sign Peca!   

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part IV: Salary Cap Suicide?

So we've finally made it to the last installment of my four part analysis of the Gomez and Drury signings.  The last major issue to analyze is how the signings will effect the Rangers in light of the new salary cap system introduced in the NHL.  Some would have us believe that the teams' signings of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury have placed a noose around the team's financial neck for years to come.  We know that the team is up against the "cap wall"  for this season.  What about the future?  Will the Rangers be financially paralyzed for the 2008-09 season?  Take a look at this list:

1.  Brendan Shanahan:     $2.5m base.$2.8m bonuses:  $5.3m per season

2.  Martin Straka:            $3.3m per season

3.  Paul Mara:                  $3.0m per season

4.  Darius Kaspasraitis:    $2.989m per season

5.  Michal Rozsival:          $2.5m per season

6.  Jason Strudwick:         $500,000 per season

7.  Andrew Hutchinson:     $475,000 per season.

That's a list of players who's contracts are expiring after the upcoming season.  With the exception of Roszival (possibly), none of them will be back (unless they're willing to play for a steep discount).  What that means is that the Rangers will have over $18m of cap space just from these players. 

Sean Avery and his $1.9m contract will also expire at seasons end as does Marcel Hossa's $780,000 contract.  If the Rangers are unwilling or unable to resign either of these players, the cap picture looks even better.

Obviously, some of the teams core players will become RFA's looking for raises.  Most notably, Henrik Lundqvist and Fedor Tyutin. However, it appears as though signing these players shouldn't be a problem given the amount of money that will be freed up at seasons end.

Granted, the Rangers will have to fill the vacancies created by these players' departures.  Here's where the Rangers' critics jump in: they argue that since the team has committed nearly $15m per season for just two players, how can the Rangers possibly expect to have enough money left over to round out the rest of their roster?!?  They point to the Tampa Bay Lightning as an example of the dangers wrought by investing too much money into too few players.  These, critics, however, are missing one crucial point:  The Rangers have quality prospects who can be used to fill out roster spots, Tampa doesn't.  In fact, Hockey's Future ranked the Rangers sixth (6th) in the NHL in terms of the quality of its prospects while Tampa was ranked 29th!.   By filling roster spots with young players the Rangers will be able to keep their cap charge down since these players are still playing out their relatively cheap entry level contracts.  Here's a list (by position) of some notable prospects who should be ready to step in by 2008-09:

1.  Al Montoya- Goaltender.  This kid looks like the real deal and is probably ready to play in the NHL now.  The emergence of Lundqvist, however, makes Montoya the odd man out.  Look for the Rangers to trade him at some point.  He should be able to fetch a handsome return.

2.  Marc Staal- Defense.  All indications are that the Rangers have got themselves a gem.  Staal should definitely be able to take one of the roster spots that will become available with the departure of all of the aforementioned defenseman currently on the Rangers' roster.

3.  Bobby Sanguinetti- Defense.  Here's part of what Hockey's Future says, "Sanguinetti has the potential to be a member of an NHL first defensive pairing."   What I like most about the kid is that he's thrilled to be a Ranger having grown up idolizing Brian Leetch. 

The Rangers also have Thomas Pock and Dan Girardi who have already spent some time with the big club in promising stints.  These guys will presumably be able to fill some of the vacancies on the blue line in 2008-09.  The most important thing about them (in terms of salary cap analysis) is that they'll be relatively cheap.   

Up front, the Rangers have well known prospects Nigel Dawes,  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and Ryan Callahan battling for roster spots this season.  By 2008-09, some of these guys should be able to fill the spots vacated by Straka, Shannahan and perhaps Avery.  In addition, the Rangers also have a number of other quality prospects up front.  Most notably, Alex Bourret, Brodie Dupont and Lauri Korpikoski.  Last, but certainly not least is this seasons #1 draft pick Alexei Cherapanov who may very well turn into a special player for the New York Rangers. 

It would certainly appear that the Rangers have the young talent necessary to round out their roster.  If the team needed to look towards free agency to fill every roster spot then, perhaps, there would be cap trouble on the horizon.  Fortunately, however, that is not the case.  Some of these young players should be able to adequately fill roles that will be opened in the near future.  These players are still relatively cheap as they are playing under their entry level contracts.  Over-all, the cap outlook in New York looks pretty encouraging.

The beauty of the Gomez and Drury signings are that the Rangers have their core centerman locked up for years to come.  The incoming young talent will be asked to play supporting roles rather then primary ones.  That's a huge bonus for young players learning the ins and outs of the best league in all of hockey.  The presence of Gomez and Drury should help ease the transitions that these youngsters will face. 

The Blueshirt Bulletin recently ran a great feature praising the Rangers' ability to rebuild while dressing a competitive team.  With Gomez, Drury and Lunqvist in the fold and the impressive stable of young talent already in the system, the Rangers should be able to continue that trend into the foreseeable future.   

If the Rangers' youngsters do in fact realize their potential on Broadway, not only will the Rangers not be in cap trouble, on the contrary, New York fans may get to see the likes on Dany Heatley or Wade Redden  playing at The World's Most Famous Arena! 

It goes without saying that I give Slats & Co. two very enthusiastic thumbs up for the signings of Gomez and Drury.  The Rangers are unquestionably a better team today then they were at the end of last season.  Given the strength of the teams' prospects, I believe that the future cap outlook for the team is just fine.  The Rangers should be competitive for years to come with Gomez and Drury anchoring their top two lines. 

Don't forget to check out the first three parts of the analysis over here, here and here.    

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part III: The Jagr Factor

I'm back with the third installment of my ongoing analysis of the Rangers big free agent signings!  Today I'm going to examine the effect these signings may have on Jaromir Jagr (The Jagr Factor).  The first two installments were definitely positive.  The Jagr factor is a little bit more complicated:

Jagr is the centerpiece of the NY Rangers.  Period.  Jagr re-emerged as a super star on the Rangers in large part because the team was built in his image.  A large number of European players (especially players from Jagr's homeland- the Czech Republic) were brought into the mix.  The European puck possession game that these players employed blended perfectly with Jagr.  The Rangers roster was so heavily dominated by European players that the team actually adopted the European custom of saluting the crowd after home ice victories!  Jagr was reborn and so were the Rangers.

Perhaps the most important member of Jagr's supporting cast was his centerman, Michael Nylander.  These two players had such great chemistry that it was literally beautiful to watch them work the ice together.  Apparently, they developed a personal friendship as well.  The big question is: will the departure of Nylander and the acquisition of two North American players (who were brought in to play key roles on the team) disrupt the chemistry (i.e. Jagr's happiness) in New York? 

No one knows the answer for sure.  One thing we do know is that history is the best teacher.  So let's take a look back at some of events that transpired throughout Jagr's career which may shed light on this issue and see what we can learn.

Jagr's Exodus From Pittsburgh:

The Pens were cash poor and unable to maintain their star players from the early 90's glory years.  As is the case with so any struggling franchises, the Pens lost their top players one at a time.  They did, however, hold onto Jagr.  Perhaps they hoped that he could be Mario Jr. and singlehandedly make the team competitive.  Guess what?  no one could do that, not even Mario Jr.  (which by the way, Jaromir was not).  Jagr wanted help in the lineup and he wanted more money.  The Pens could afford neither.  It didn't take long for Jagr to sour on the Pens and Pens to sour on Jagr.  All of a sudden, reports materialized that the once golden boy was now a chemistry killing gambloholic.  Ultimately Jagr was dealt to the Caps.  In the process, Jagr began to solidify his reputation as a temperamental superstar who could be more trouble then he's worth despite his incredible talent.  But was that a fair assessment of Jagr?

The way I see it, the truth is somewhere in the middle.  When guys like Messier, Coffey, Lowe, Anderson, etc.. left the Oilers because they wanted to make more money and win, no one vilified them.  Their characters were not called into question.  In fact, conventional wisdom said that it was their strong character and desire to win which prompted them to seek trades from a once formidable but currently floundering franchise.  Those guys were North American and Jagr is European.  In todays NHL, European players are slowly getting the respect they deserve.  Ten years ago was different.  At that point the NHL wasn't too far removed from Don Cherry's ridiculous rants.  I think that to a certain extent, Jagr suffered from the misconceptions that existed regarding European players.  Jagr's inability to say the right things at the right time didn't help his image much either.

On the other hand, the perception was that Jagr did seem to "quit" during his final months with the Pens.  The aforementioned players (Mess, Coffey, Lowe, etc..) didn't do that.  That certainly doesn't bode well for Jagr.  If he really is a temperamental player, the Rangers could have a problem on their hands!  At the end of the day, The Pittsburgh Exodus doesn't answer the question. 

The Disaster In Washington:

So Jagr escapes to the Caps from the Pens.  He signs a huge contract and then goes on to totally and completely flop!  Once again he's painted as a temperamental player who is more of a distraction than he's worth.  Yet, once again the truth is somewhere in the middle:  Washington's management was reportedly split on whether or not to acquire Jagr.  Supposedly, G.M. George McPhee was against the idea.  However, he was apparently over-ruled by the team owner.  That's not exactly the healthiest way for a team to make the biggest trade in its history.  Was the rift palpable?  Did Jagr get a sense that he wasn't fully wanted by all the members of his new employer?  How would that make you feel?  Remember when Gretzky got that same sense in St. Louis?  Gretzky refused to resign with the club despite the fact that they gave up some good young players to acquire him.  Was Gretzky vilified?  The other problem in Washington was that the team didn't "open up" its playing style to suit Jagr.  Some people are of the opinion that a player has to conform to the team, not vice versa.  But was Mark Messier vilified in the early 90's in New York when he chased Roger Nielson out of town for employing a defense first system when that system didn't jive with Messier's style of play? 

However, again we see a difference between Messier and Jagr:  Mess played hard for Nielson all season.  The perception in Washington is that Jagr quit.  Again, if that's true the Rangers could have a problem on their hands! 

Jagr's  Ranger Revival:

Ultimately Jagr came to New York and was reborn.  There are a bunch of points here so let's tackle them one at a time:

     The Captaincy:   

Jagr didn't want it at first.  He himself said that he felt that the team would be better served with a North American Captain. I do not believe that Jagr was shying away from the responsibility of being Captain (he ultimately accepted the role with open arms).  I believe that Jagr felt misunderstood as a European player.  He felt that he had been unfairly portrayed in the media and was not given the same benefit of the doubt as his North American Counterparts.  As such, it would only hurt him and the team were he to be captain.  Once he saw that New York embraced him and the New York media did not display any anti-euro sentiments, he took the job.  To me, this tends to show that some of the sting from the Pittsburgh and Washington fiascoes were the result of misperception. 

     The Shannahan Signing:    

When the Rangers brought in Shanny I was concerned about the chemistry of the team.  Shanny is the prototypical North American power forward and leader.  Could he and Jagr successfully coexist in the same locker room?  Would a rift be created? Would the team be split into two camps?  In hindsight those fears proved to be misplaced.  Shanny and Jagr thrived together.  At the end of this season, Jagr lobbied hard for the resigning of Shanny.  Jagr actually said that Shanny's presence takes a lot of the leadership burdens off of himself allowing him to focus more on the game.  Wow!  Who would have believed this!  If this is the real Jagr, that same attitude should help smoothen the transition into the Gomez/Drury era.

     Do As I Do , Not As I Say:

Unfortunately, Jagr has never mastered the skill of saying the right things at the right times.  Add to that his off beat sense of humor and you've got a guy who is often hard to read.  The one constant throughout his tenure as a Ranger, however, has been his commitment to excellence on the ice.  He may say things that sound negative but on the ice, it's all positive.  He's played through pain and injuries without complaining and he has looked very much like a dedicated winner here in New York. 

The Blueshirt Bulletin recently posted an article based on some jagr quotes regarding the signings of Gomez and Drury that don't sound too positive.  At this point, I'm not going to read to much into them.  Jagr basically says that if he can't click with either centerman, the Rangers will have problems.  Guess what? he's right!  Furthermore, that's Jagr's style: he calls it as he sees it.  He doesn't worry about saying the "right" things.  Perhaps he should, but he doesn't.  Don't forget that this is the same Jagr who declared that he will be spending this off season preparing to be the best player he can possible be. 

So which is the real Jagr?  Is he the guy that publicly questions the signings of Drury or Gomez?  Or is he the guy that is dedicated to being the best player he can be?  I don't know!  Neither does anyone in the hockey world.  What I do know is that Jagr now has an opportunity to prove his critics wrong:  If he goes out and does everything in his power to make things work for this team then he is unquestionably a team leader and star.  If he "quits" if and when the going gets tough, well you know how that ends.  I am hopeful that he will seize this opportunity to redifine his legacy. 

The bottom line for the Rangers is that if Jagr is the temperamental problem child some think he is, he would have never lead us to a cup anyway.  Therefore, signing Drury and Gomez were the right moves as they make the team less reliant on Jagr The Problem Child.  If, on the other hand, Jagr is the leader he can be, then the Rangers might be closer then some people would like to think to taking another victory march down the Canyon of Heroes.  Time will tell.   

         

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part II: What About The Other Options?

     So the Rangers just committed huge money to Scott Gomez and Chris Drury.  Today's issue in our continuing analysis of the signings is whether the Rangers had any cheaper and/or better options available to them. 

     Before we get into the details, let's lay a foundation:  First, I believe the Rangers have a very special two year window of opportunity within which to win a Stanley Cup (or two!).  Therefore, management is wholly justified in taking an aggressive approach in an attempt to capitalize on this opportunity.  Second, this window of opportunity revolves around Jaromir Jagr.  Jagr is the member of an endangered species in the NHL: the true Franchise Player.  He is a truly gifted offensive force.  His skill often causes opponents to change their game plan in an attempt to neutralize him.  Since he is our franchise player, in order to maximize his impact and team chemistry, the team must be "built" around him, i.e. an offensive up-tempo team.  There is no question that the Rangers defense is suspect.  As much as we needed to shore up our center ice position, we also need a number one d-man.  However, in a salary cap world where money is an issue, you can't address all your needs.  You have to make choices.  Since the team is built around Jagr, I believe that the first priority has to be to solidify the offense (as a side note, as justified as "going for it all" is for this franchise, management still has to preserve the future.  That's another reason why I believe that focusing on forwards was the correct approach for this club:  the Rangers have some excellent prospects on defense.  Going out and signing veteran defenseman to huge contracts would eat up the ice time these prospects need in order to properly develop).  Now that we've got the foundation in place, let's get back to the question: was signing Gomez and Drury the best option or were there other cheaper and/or better alternatives available?

     The first place management should have looked was within.  Does the team have any prospects in the system that could play a significant role as a first or second line center on a Stanley Cup contending team within the next season or two?  To me, the answer is no.  The Rangers do not have any "blue chip" prospects at the center ice position.  Certainly no one who could step in as a legitimate first or second line guy come playoff time.  I'm not knocking our prospects, I'm simply being realistic.  If you want to win the cup, you can't turn one of your top two offensive lines over to a "B" level prospect.  Since we don't have anyone in the system to take the spot, management has to look outside the club for options. 

     Trades are tough, because you've got to give in order to get.  The team would end up weakening itself at one position in order to get stronger at another.  A team like the Rangers, which relies so heavily on Jagr, doesn't really have the depth necessary to trade for a top center.  Additionally, how many top line center iceman are available.  Rumors swirl about Patrick Marleu, Vinny Lecavalier and/or Brad Richards.  Our most trade-able asset is probably Al Montoya ( a "blue chip" goaltending prospect).  San Jose doesn't need a goalie prospect (they've got solid goaltending and they want to win NOW, they're not looking to develop a goalie).  Tampa, on the other hand needs a goalie.  I'd love Vinny but could we get him for Al Montoya?  Definitely not.  The pot would have to be sweetened considerably.  However, if the Rangers "sweeten the pot" we create a weakness at a different position(s).  Obviously, that doesn't work.  What about Richards?  rumor has it that Tampa would love to relive cap pressure by trading away either Martin St. Louis or Richards.  Perhaps they'd be desperate enough to trade Richards for a package highlighted by Montoya.  But does that make sense for the Rangers?  Why waste one of your few top trading chips (remember, the presence of Lundqvist makes Montoya expendable without creating a hole in the goaltendong position- especially since the Rangers drafted another goalie with their second pick in this seasons draft), on Brad Richards and his $7.8m cap charge when you can sign Gomez for a $7.3m cap charge and use your trading chip to strengthen a different position?  That leaves us with the double edged sword of unrestricted free agency!

     So we're left with going the free agency route.  The first question is, wouldn't it have been better to resign Nylander and then target either Drury or Gomez.  Why sign both players for over $7m each?  The savings we would have received by resigning Nylander could have been applied to a much needed defenseman.  The reality is that the Rangers would have saved about $2.5m per year by resigning Nylander (Washington gave him nearly $5m per year for four years).  $2.5m per year is not enough to sign an impact defenseman in todays market.  More importantly, had the Rangers matched Washington's offer they'd be paying Nylander nearly $5m per year until the guy was pushing 40 years old.  Not a smart idea, both Gomez and Drury are significantly younger.  The Rangers made the right call letting Nylander walk.

  The next question is, weren't there any other free agents the Rangers could have signed for less money and shorter contract terms?  Of course!  But before we jump to conclusions, let's look at the players individually: 

     Scott Gomez:  The Rangers need a legitimate first line center.  They don't have one in the system.  They certainly don't have one who will be ready to contribute meaningfully during the Jagr Window.  Gomez fits the bill and he's only 27.  A lot of people say that signing unrestricted free agents to huge contracts is a recipe for disaster and it rarely works from a historical perspective.  But how many big time UFA's were signed at the age of 27?  Yes we signed him to a long contract, however, at the expiration of his contract he'll still be younger than Nylander is right now! Yes we paid him huge dollars but everyone knows that UFA contracts are often higher than usual (that's why they're not used as comparables during salary arbitration). 

     Chris Drury:  I'm much more skeptical about this one!  Don't get me wrong, I love the guy as a player.  However,  he is on the wrong side of 30 (albeit not by much) and he is, at best, a second line player.  We're paying an awful lot of money for a second line center!  However, I do give Sather the benefit of the doubt on this one because: (1) he is the best option for the job during the Jagr Window and (2) the Rangers long term cap outlook is not nearly as bleak as some would suggest (we'll get to that in a later post). 

     So we've established that Gomez and Drury were the best options in this years free agent class.  But what about next years class?  Maybe next year would have presented better alternatives?  After all, the Jagr window will last at least two seasons.  Who knows, maybe Jagr will play a third season as well?  Did it make sense to tie up the top two center positions now, or should we have kept an opening available for free agent center iceman next year or the year after that?  To answer that question, I'll give you a team by team breakdown of notable free agent forwards expected to become available in the 2-3 years (I got the info from nhlnumbers.com).  I think you'll see that for the most part, Gomez and Drury are the best options available. (The list contains the players name, position, date of birth and the year in which his current contract expires along with my comments in italics):

Calgary:

None.

Colorado:

Joe Sakic,  Center, July 7, 1969,  current contract expires at the end of the 2007-08 season.  He'll be too old.

Edmonton:

None.

Minnesota:

Marian Gaborik, Winger, February 14, 1982, Current contract expires at the end of the 2008-09 season.  I don't see Minnesota letting him go.  Additionally, the Rangers are stocked at the wing.  Finally, the Jagr Window will be closed.

Pavel Demitra, Winger, November 29, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Not a centerman, old, not nearly as good of a fit as the guys we got.

Vancouver:

Markus Naslund, Winger, July 30, 1973, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  See analysis for Pavel Demitra!

Sedin Twins, September 26, 1980, current contracts expire following the 2008-09 season.  Probably too late for the Jagr Window.  only one of them plays center but they'll probably insist on signing as a package. 

Brendan Morrison, Center, August 15, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  He'll be older then both guys we signed and he's not in their league.

Anaheim:

Todd Bertuzzi, Winger, February 2, 1975, Current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Wrong position, probably too late for the Jagr Window, he'll be too old and he's already got serious injury problems.

Rob Neidermayer, Center, December 28, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  He'll be too old, probably too late for Jagr window, he's not nearly as good as either player we signed.

Dallas:

None.

Los Angeles:

None.

Phoenix:

None.

San Jose:

Patrick Marleau, Center, September 15, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  He's a good one! I don't see S.J. letting him go for nothing.  If they somehow did, the bidding would be fierce as the pickings will be much slimmer next off-season for teams in the free agent hunt for center-men.  Would you risk loosing the Jagr window to try to sign a guy who might not even make it to free agency?  I wouldn't.

Chicago:

Martin Havlat, Winger, April 19, 1981, current contract expires after the 2008-09 season.  Great player! But he's not a centerman, we'd probably miss the Jagr Window and it's very unlikely that he'll reach free agency: G-d knows Chicago has no cap issues! and I don't see them letting this guy walk.

Columbus:

Sergei Federov, Center, December 13, 1969, current contract expires following the 2007-08 season.  You guys can figure this one out!

Detroit:

Henrik Zetterberg, Winger, October 9, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  See the comments for Havlat, minus the cap issue joke!

Nashville:

J.P. Dumont, Winger, April 1, 1978, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  This guy doesn't address the teams needs. 

David Legwand, Center, August 17, 1980, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  This guy doesn't compare to the guys we signed.  Would you hang your hat on David Legwand?

St. Louis:

Keith Tkachuk,  why did I even list him?   

Doug Weight, Center, January 21, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  No comment!!!

Boston:

None.

Buffalo:

Tim Conolly, Center, May 7, 1981, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Probably too late for the Jagr window.  I wouldn't put the plans for a victory parade on hold for two years to try to get this guy.

Ales Kotalik, Winger, December 23, 1978, current contract expires following the 2008-09 season.  See my comments for Conolly. Also, this guy plays the wrong position.  However, I'd consider signing him just for his first name (that's for you Moss)!

Montreal:

Saku Koivu, Center, November 23, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  You can figure this out.

Alex Kovalev, Winger, February 24, 1973, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Ditto!

Ottawa:

Danny Heatley, Winger, January 21, 1981, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  I love this guy! So does every G.M. in the league, that's why I don't see him hitting the market.  I wouldn't pass up on Gomez or Drury to leave space available for him because (1) I don't think he'll really be available and (2) we could still sign him if he becomes available (I'll be writing a post regarding the Rangers long term CAP outlook shortly)  Even though he's a winger and we don't need those in the foreseeable future, Heatley's the kind of a guy you get no matter what if you can do so.

Toronto (Eh!- that's another one for Moss- and thedirtyboy!)

Mats Sundin, Center, February 13, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  You get the picture!

New Jersey:

Brian Gionta, Winger, January 18, 1979, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Let's see, Scott Gomez or Brian Gionta? hmmm...

New York Isles:

Miro Satan, Winger, October 22, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Why would anyone want to leave Long Island?!?!

Philadelphia:

None.

Pittsburgh:

Evgeni Malkin, Center, July 31, 1986, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.

Sidney Crosby, Center, August 7, 1987, current contract expires following 2007-08 season, see comments below.

Jordan Staal, Center, October 10, 1988, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.

The above three players will be RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS upon the expiration of their respective contracts.  I mention them here because it's possible that one of them ( no not Crosby and probably not Malkin either) will have to be traded.  I'd love to land any one of them.  However, this is pure speculation and if I were Sather I certainly wouldn't pass up on an opportunity to win the cup with Gomez and Drury in order to be prepared for the possibility that one of these guys might be put on the trading block. 

Ryan Malone, Winger, December 1, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. 

Atlanta

Marian Hossa, Winger, January 12, 1979, contract expires following 2007-08 season.  IF he becomes a free agent he'll get huge offers (even though he forgets to suit up in  the playoffs!)  Would I love to have him anyway? Of course.  Does he fill a Rangers need? No.  'Nuff said.

Bobby Holik, 'Nuff said!

Carolina:

Erik Cole, Winger, November 6, 1978, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Yawn.

Florida:

None.

Tampa Bay:

Vinny Lecavalier, Center, April 21, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Even if he makes it to free agency it would be tough to land him.  Go through my list, how many quality centerman did you see in Vinny's year?  This season you had three somewhat evenly matched centerman and a bunch of lower level guys who could play.  The competition for them was fierce.  What do you think will happen when the supply of quality players is significantly less?

Vaclav Prospal, Center, February 17, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Yawn.

Chris Gratton, Center, July 5, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Bigger Yawn.

After reviewing this list, I think it's safe to say that Gomez and Drury were the best options.  I'm not giving my stamp of approval just yet, there's still more analysis to be done!  Until next time....Good night and G-d bless.