So the Rangers just committed huge money to Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. Today's issue in our continuing analysis of the signings is whether the Rangers had any cheaper and/or better options available to them.
Before we get into the details, let's lay a foundation: First, I believe the Rangers have a very special two year window of opportunity within which to win a Stanley Cup (or two!). Therefore, management is wholly justified in taking an aggressive approach in an attempt to capitalize on this opportunity. Second, this window of opportunity revolves around Jaromir Jagr. Jagr is the member of an endangered species in the NHL: the true Franchise Player. He is a truly gifted offensive force. His skill often causes opponents to change their game plan in an attempt to neutralize him. Since he is our franchise player, in order to maximize his impact and team chemistry, the team must be "built" around him, i.e. an offensive up-tempo team. There is no question that the Rangers defense is suspect. As much as we needed to shore up our center ice position, we also need a number one d-man. However, in a salary cap world where money is an issue, you can't address all your needs. You have to make choices. Since the team is built around Jagr, I believe that the first priority has to be to solidify the offense (as a side note, as justified as "going for it all" is for this franchise, management still has to preserve the future. That's another reason why I believe that focusing on forwards was the correct approach for this club: the Rangers have some excellent prospects on defense. Going out and signing veteran defenseman to huge contracts would eat up the ice time these prospects need in order to properly develop). Now that we've got the foundation in place, let's get back to the question: was signing Gomez and Drury the best option or were there other cheaper and/or better alternatives available?
The first place management should have looked was within. Does the team have any prospects in the system that could play a significant role as a first or second line center on a Stanley Cup contending team within the next season or two? To me, the answer is no. The Rangers do not have any "blue chip" prospects at the center ice position. Certainly no one who could step in as a legitimate first or second line guy come playoff time. I'm not knocking our prospects, I'm simply being realistic. If you want to win the cup, you can't turn one of your top two offensive lines over to a "B" level prospect. Since we don't have anyone in the system to take the spot, management has to look outside the club for options.
Trades are tough, because you've got to give in order to get. The team would end up weakening itself at one position in order to get stronger at another. A team like the Rangers, which relies so heavily on Jagr, doesn't really have the depth necessary to trade for a top center. Additionally, how many top line center iceman are available. Rumors swirl about Patrick Marleu, Vinny Lecavalier and/or Brad Richards. Our most trade-able asset is probably Al Montoya ( a "blue chip" goaltending prospect). San Jose doesn't need a goalie prospect (they've got solid goaltending and they want to win NOW, they're not looking to develop a goalie). Tampa, on the other hand needs a goalie. I'd love Vinny but could we get him for Al Montoya? Definitely not. The pot would have to be sweetened considerably. However, if the Rangers "sweeten the pot" we create a weakness at a different position(s). Obviously, that doesn't work. What about Richards? rumor has it that Tampa would love to relive cap pressure by trading away either Martin St. Louis or Richards. Perhaps they'd be desperate enough to trade Richards for a package highlighted by Montoya. But does that make sense for the Rangers? Why waste one of your few top trading chips (remember, the presence of Lundqvist makes Montoya expendable without creating a hole in the goaltendong position- especially since the Rangers drafted another goalie with their second pick in this seasons draft), on Brad Richards and his $7.8m cap charge when you can sign Gomez for a $7.3m cap charge and use your trading chip to strengthen a different position? That leaves us with the double edged sword of unrestricted free agency!
So we're left with going the free agency route. The first question is, wouldn't it have been better to resign Nylander and then target either Drury or Gomez. Why sign both players for over $7m each? The savings we would have received by resigning Nylander could have been applied to a much needed defenseman. The reality is that the Rangers would have saved about $2.5m per year by resigning Nylander (Washington gave him nearly $5m per year for four years). $2.5m per year is not enough to sign an impact defenseman in todays market. More importantly, had the Rangers matched Washington's offer they'd be paying Nylander nearly $5m per year until the guy was pushing 40 years old. Not a smart idea, both Gomez and Drury are significantly younger. The Rangers made the right call letting Nylander walk.
The next question is, weren't there any other free agents the Rangers could have signed for less money and shorter contract terms? Of course! But before we jump to conclusions, let's look at the players individually:
Scott Gomez: The Rangers need a legitimate first line center. They don't have one in the system. They certainly don't have one who will be ready to contribute meaningfully during the Jagr Window. Gomez fits the bill and he's only 27. A lot of people say that signing unrestricted free agents to huge contracts is a recipe for disaster and it rarely works from a historical perspective. But how many big time UFA's were signed at the age of 27? Yes we signed him to a long contract, however, at the expiration of his contract he'll still be younger than Nylander is right now! Yes we paid him huge dollars but everyone knows that UFA contracts are often higher than usual (that's why they're not used as comparables during salary arbitration).
Chris Drury: I'm much more skeptical about this one! Don't get me wrong, I love the guy as a player. However, he is on the wrong side of 30 (albeit not by much) and he is, at best, a second line player. We're paying an awful lot of money for a second line center! However, I do give Sather the benefit of the doubt on this one because: (1) he is the best option for the job during the Jagr Window and (2) the Rangers long term cap outlook is not nearly as bleak as some would suggest (we'll get to that in a later post).
So we've established that Gomez and Drury were the best options in this years free agent class. But what about next years class? Maybe next year would have presented better alternatives? After all, the Jagr window will last at least two seasons. Who knows, maybe Jagr will play a third season as well? Did it make sense to tie up the top two center positions now, or should we have kept an opening available for free agent center iceman next year or the year after that? To answer that question, I'll give you a team by team breakdown of notable free agent forwards expected to become available in the 2-3 years (I got the info from nhlnumbers.com). I think you'll see that for the most part, Gomez and Drury are the best options available. (The list contains the players name, position, date of birth and the year in which his current contract expires along with my comments in italics):
Calgary:
None.
Colorado:
Joe Sakic, Center, July 7, 1969, current contract expires at the end of the 2007-08 season. He'll be too old.
Edmonton:
None.
Minnesota:
Marian Gaborik, Winger, February 14, 1982, Current contract expires at the end of the 2008-09 season. I don't see Minnesota letting him go. Additionally, the Rangers are stocked at the wing. Finally, the Jagr Window will be closed.
Pavel Demitra, Winger, November 29, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Not a centerman, old, not nearly as good of a fit as the guys we got.
Vancouver:
Markus Naslund, Winger, July 30, 1973, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. See analysis for Pavel Demitra!
Sedin Twins, September 26, 1980, current contracts expire following the 2008-09 season. Probably too late for the Jagr Window. only one of them plays center but they'll probably insist on signing as a package.
Brendan Morrison, Center, August 15, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. He'll be older then both guys we signed and he's not in their league.
Anaheim:
Todd Bertuzzi, Winger, February 2, 1975, Current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Wrong position, probably too late for the Jagr Window, he'll be too old and he's already got serious injury problems.
Rob Neidermayer, Center, December 28, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. He'll be too old, probably too late for Jagr window, he's not nearly as good as either player we signed.
Dallas:
None.
Los Angeles:
None.
Phoenix:
None.
San Jose:
Patrick Marleau, Center, September 15, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. He's a good one! I don't see S.J. letting him go for nothing. If they somehow did, the bidding would be fierce as the pickings will be much slimmer next off-season for teams in the free agent hunt for center-men. Would you risk loosing the Jagr window to try to sign a guy who might not even make it to free agency? I wouldn't.
Chicago:
Martin Havlat, Winger, April 19, 1981, current contract expires after the 2008-09 season. Great player! But he's not a centerman, we'd probably miss the Jagr Window and it's very unlikely that he'll reach free agency: G-d knows Chicago has no cap issues! and I don't see them letting this guy walk.
Columbus:
Sergei Federov, Center, December 13, 1969, current contract expires following the 2007-08 season. You guys can figure this one out!
Detroit:
Henrik Zetterberg, Winger, October 9, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. See the comments for Havlat, minus the cap issue joke!
Nashville:
J.P. Dumont, Winger, April 1, 1978, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. This guy doesn't address the teams needs.
David Legwand, Center, August 17, 1980, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. This guy doesn't compare to the guys we signed. Would you hang your hat on David Legwand?
St. Louis:
Keith Tkachuk, why did I even list him?
Doug Weight, Center, January 21, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. No comment!!!
Boston:
None.
Buffalo:
Tim Conolly, Center, May 7, 1981, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Probably too late for the Jagr window. I wouldn't put the plans for a victory parade on hold for two years to try to get this guy.
Ales Kotalik, Winger, December 23, 1978, current contract expires following the 2008-09 season. See my comments for Conolly. Also, this guy plays the wrong position. However, I'd consider signing him just for his first name (that's for you Moss)!
Montreal:
Saku Koivu, Center, November 23, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. You can figure this out.
Alex Kovalev, Winger, February 24, 1973, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Ditto!
Ottawa:
Danny Heatley, Winger, January 21, 1981, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. I love this guy! So does every G.M. in the league, that's why I don't see him hitting the market. I wouldn't pass up on Gomez or Drury to leave space available for him because (1) I don't think he'll really be available and (2) we could still sign him if he becomes available (I'll be writing a post regarding the Rangers long term CAP outlook shortly) Even though he's a winger and we don't need those in the foreseeable future, Heatley's the kind of a guy you get no matter what if you can do so.
Toronto (Eh!- that's another one for Moss- and thedirtyboy!)
Mats Sundin, Center, February 13, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. You get the picture!
New Jersey:
Brian Gionta, Winger, January 18, 1979, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Let's see, Scott Gomez or Brian Gionta? hmmm...
New York Isles:
Miro Satan, Winger, October 22, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Why would anyone want to leave Long Island?!?!
Philadelphia:
None.
Pittsburgh:
Evgeni Malkin, Center, July 31, 1986, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.
Sidney Crosby, Center, August 7, 1987, current contract expires following 2007-08 season, see comments below.
Jordan Staal, Center, October 10, 1988, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.
The above three players will be RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS upon the expiration of their respective contracts. I mention them here because it's possible that one of them ( no not Crosby and probably not Malkin either) will have to be traded. I'd love to land any one of them. However, this is pure speculation and if I were Sather I certainly wouldn't pass up on an opportunity to win the cup with Gomez and Drury in order to be prepared for the possibility that one of these guys might be put on the trading block.
Ryan Malone, Winger, December 1, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.
Atlanta
Marian Hossa, Winger, January 12, 1979, contract expires following 2007-08 season. IF he becomes a free agent he'll get huge offers (even though he forgets to suit up in the playoffs!) Would I love to have him anyway? Of course. Does he fill a Rangers need? No. 'Nuff said.
Bobby Holik, 'Nuff said!
Carolina:
Erik Cole, Winger, November 6, 1978, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Yawn.
Florida:
None.
Tampa Bay:
Vinny Lecavalier, Center, April 21, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season. Even if he makes it to free agency it would be tough to land him. Go through my list, how many quality centerman did you see in Vinny's year? This season you had three somewhat evenly matched centerman and a bunch of lower level guys who could play. The competition for them was fierce. What do you think will happen when the supply of quality players is significantly less?
Vaclav Prospal, Center, February 17, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Yawn.
Chris Gratton, Center, July 5, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. Bigger Yawn.
After reviewing this list, I think it's safe to say that Gomez and Drury were the best options. I'm not giving my stamp of approval just yet, there's still more analysis to be done! Until next time....Good night and G-d bless.
Great post, bra. The only thing I would like to point out to you is that in your analysis, you seem to preface your points on the assumption that most of the top tier free agents to be will not, in fact, wind up getting to free agency because their respective teams fear losing an all too important player. On this point , I respectfully disagree, & I'll tell you why. The reason we had a lockout was because owners were standing their ground on a hard cap (albeit one that fluctuates respective to League revenues), & players feared they will never be able to make top dollar anymore due to the removal of the "open-market" system of salaries where this "market" dictated salaries. Now the players salaries have to fit in an overall team budget, where a teammates salary does impact others. To make a long story short, the new CBA was agreed upon by th players because of other incentives & opportunities offered to them to maximize the salary. Like free agency, for exanple. Players can now become UFA's at 27. What that means is that not only will they be younger when they get to free agency, but the life of the contracts will be twice as long. We were used to seeing big UFA contract in the 4 year range at $6-8M a year. Last week, in the first post lock-out, salary cap NHL UFA market, we see contracts being signed for that much money but for 6,7,& 8 years over the life of the contract. Also, because cap charges are only based on yearly averages over the course of the contract, players are getting huge signing bonuses & up-front salaries- if I'm not mistaken, Briere will make $10.5M his first 2 seasons. The point is that the players didn't fight & waste a year of salary during the lockout to forgo a chance at free agency. Thats why I don't think your'e going to see many players sign extensions to forgo UFA status, especially with the gluttony we experienced last week. And even if they opt for an extension, I believe the bar was set by Calgary this week in the "extension" market when they extended Iginla & Rehgeir (spelling?) both for 5 years. 5 year extensions? That was unheard of pre-lockout, when the norm for extensions was 2 years at most. So don't be shocked to see Vincenzo, Mr. Heatly, & Sid The Kid there for the taking- it's what they fought for, isn't it?
Posted by: MOSS | July 06, 2007 at 05:34 AM
We'll have to agree to disagree! I do believe that most of the top notch players in my list will be reisned (Lecavalier, Heatly, Hossa, etc...) or traded and resigned by their acquiring clubs. These guys are "true" proven first line players. Guys like that don't often get to the market (that's why guys like Thornton and Iginla were given extensions). Is it possible that one of them might hit the open market? of course. Would I put the Rangers plans to win a cup during the Jagr Window on hold to try to get one of those guys? No. Even if they do hit the market, competition for their services would be so fierce that it would be foolish to "expect" to sign them.
These guys are different then Gomez, Drury & Briere. Drury and Briere are not "true" first liners. Therefore, a team like Buffalo can and did balk at paying them franchise player money for a long time. Gomez might turn into a first rate point produce now that he'll be playing in a more open system. But the jury is still out on that. So again, I could see why Jersey can and did balk at paying him franchise player money for a long time. Heatley, Lecavalier, Hossa, etc.. have scored huge points for years. No one will have a problem paying them huge money which is why I don't see them getting to the market (just like Jumbo Joe and Iggy).
By the way, Crosby will be a restricted free agent, and TSN has been reporting for several days that the Pens are negotiating to lock him up to a long term extension. I only mentioned the 3 Penguins because I wouldn't be surprised if one of them becomes available via trade since the Pens would probably have a hard time resigning all of them to extensions.
Posted by: The Hockey Rabbi | July 06, 2007 at 07:44 AM
Al,
I have a few comments on your post. I have a problem with the whole premise of it actually because it's based on Jagr. It's based on Jagr's health and happiness. This guy can play 80 games this year... or he can play 8! You can't control his health, but that doesn't mean you don't have to worry about it. His happiness you can control.
You wrote:
wouldn't it have been better to resign Nylander and then target either Drury or Gomez. Why sign both players for over $7m each? The savings we would have received by resigning Nylander could have been applied to a much needed defenseman.
That is actually what came to my mind when I heard about the Rangers double-signing. They got two quality players- I said before that I really like them both-especially based on the fact that they are both proven winners. But they took away an existing successful chemistry by not resigning Nylander and their defense is still a joke. If things don't go as planned we could see the return of a temperamental character I like to refer to as "Washington-Jagr".
As the old saying goes- if it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Rangers didn't have a problem scoring goals, they had a problem preventing goals. Imagine a Rangers team with Nylander, Gomez or Drury, and a stopper on defense. They could have signed Brendan Witt last year. They could have signed Scott Hannan this year. They could still trade for Jovo-Cop because everyone is talking about the fact that he is there for the taking.
Remember Buffalo last year? They won the Presidents Trophy. They were faster than the rangers will be this year. They could roll 4 lines of offense and always be a scoring threat and their goaltending was great. They were a thing of beauty during the regular season. But what happened to them during the playoffs? Same group of guys, different result. And when I look at Buffalo's defense from last year- it's better than the Rangers' this year. Don't get me wrong, the Rangers will be a very entertaining team this season. I just think they need to do something about their defense from now until the March trade deadline.
Lastly, I agree with Moss in regards to the new age minimum of free agency and how that will have an effect on player availablity. Players will sign where they feel like it because they can now demand more and do so at a younger age. The crazy thing is that I feel that although we're seeing longer contracts, we will actually see MORE player movement.
Posted by: thedirtyboy | July 06, 2007 at 10:11 AM
thedirtyboy:
I'm not overly concerned about Jagr's health. Although at his age anything is possible. That being said I definitely think the Rangers can and should go for it with Jagr at the wheel. As for his atitude, if he hasn't matured and he's still capable of morphing into that little girl, then he's not going to be able to lead us to a cup ayway. Personally, I think he's grown tremendously over the last few years and I believe he's very focused on winning another cup.
As far as the chemistry issue, I tend to agree with you. However, that will be the topic of an upcoming post so I'm not going to get into the details now.
As far as the defense goes, it's definitley the weakest link in the team. I wouldn't call it a "joke", though. The Rangers' goals against average in the second half of last season was amongst the best in the league. In my post I discuss why the team was correct in solidifying the center position ahead of the defense. I still stand by that and I don't think you've presented a convincing argument to the contrary (no disrespect, just calling it as I see it). Do you really belive that adding Brendan Witt, Joe Corvo, Scott Hannan or even Jovanovski would be better for this club than Drury? What about the players they'd have to trade to get Jovanovski.
As for the "if it aint broke don't fix it" piece about the Rangers adequate offense, I disagree. The Rangers offense revolved EXCLUSIVELY around Jagr. Take Jagr out of the equation and the Rangers had a pop gun offense at best. Nylander and Straka only did what they did because of Jagr. Ditto for Shanny (he didn't play with Jagr, however, teams focused on shutting down Jagr which gave Shanny a lot more room). Who else on the team was an offensive threat in their own right? No one. Everyone who watched the Rangers recognized that we needed help at the Center position. Straka (wh is not a natural center) was centering our second line. That doesn't work.
As far as the free agency thing, time will tell. But the reality of the league TODAY is that superstars are rarely lost for nothing. Perhaps that will change in the future, but I live in the present (or at least I try to!)
Posted by: The Hockey Rabbi | July 06, 2007 at 12:26 PM