The Hockey Rabbi

RANGERS LOSE, ISLES ARE LOSERS!

Admittedly, I missed most of last night's Rangers-Islanders game.  I only managed to catch the last 10 minutes of the game.

As I sat there watching those few minutes I was more then a little frustrated and angry.  On the one hand, you can't expect any team to win every game.  The Rangers had won four in a row.  They were playing their second game in as many nights.  Lundqvist has been super human and you can't expect that every night.

On the other hand, they were playing the Isles.  This team should be able to show up against the Isles no matter how tired they are.  If a game against their most bitter rivals doesn't get their adrenaline flowing, then there's an issue!  I sat there imagining the excuses Renney would probably make for his players after the game and it frustrated me.

Most of all, there was no escaping the fact that if Lundqvist doesn't stop everything, the Rangers still can't win.  That's a problem.  A huge problem. 

Then the final buzzer sounded.  My concern turned to anger as I imagined the joy my friend thedirtyboy (an Isles fan) was probably feeling as his beloved farm team accomplished the Long Island equivalent of winning the Cup. 

But then it happened.  The anger and frustration instantly subsided.  Instead all I felt was a strange and satisfying sense of pity for the icelanders.  What caused this massive emotional shift?  I watched as the hopelessly overshadowed icelanders lined up along their blue line and raised their sticks in victory to salute the crowd (which was almost half filled with icelander fans!).

Where have I seen that before?  Oh yeah! The Rangers started that trend.  Who would have ever thought that the Isles would shamelessly copy the Rangers?!?!  Oh but wait, the Isles are really being original.  You see, the Rangers line up at center ice while the Isles do something totally different and original by lining up along their blue line!!!  That was such a pathetic display of "Ranger Envy" that I couldn't even be angry about the loss.  I actually felt badly for the Isles.  They're so pathetically shameless.  Losers! 

RANGERS STRIKE LIGHTNING!

Make no mistake, last night's victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning was important.  The Lightning are not one of the league's better teams.  Nor was this a "measuring stick" game.  However, there were some very important "events" in this game:

1.  The Goals:  The Rangers managed to score three (3) goals!  That, in and of itself, is an important accomplishment for this team!  Even more importantly, however, is how the team scored its goals.  The first goal came courtesy of a Nigel Dawes deflection.  The second goal was the result of a shot (gasp!) from the point by Jagr which found its way to the net courtesy of the traffic generated in front of Tampa's goalie as a result of Shanny crashing the net.  The third goal was scored by Shanny setting up shop directly in front of the net with his stick on the ice.  Simple, fundamental hockey. 

2.  Jaromir Jagr:  In my last post, I referred to Jagr as the captain (lower case "c").  Last night, Jagr played like a Captain.  He drove to the net.  He kept his feet moving.  He shot the puck.  He scored a power play goal off of a slap shot from the point (really!)  Most importantly, he literally got his teeth knocked out and managed to finish the game with a two point first star performance.  Like I said, he played like a Captain. 

3.  Nigel Dawes:  In my season preview, I wrote about the need for someone other than the big guns to step up for the Rangers.  It's only been a few games but Dawes looks like he could be that player this season.  Admittedly, I've been slow to warm up to this kid.  However, Dawes is absolutely earning respect and praise with the way he's been playing.  The kid can skate, pass, shoot and even hit!  If Dawes continues to perform, Renney will have some very difficult decisions to make when Avery, Straka and Callahan are ready to get back into the line up. 

It was only one game.  It may be the beginning.             

Time For Tom To Wake Up

The Rangers didn't break down tonight.  Ottawa broke through.  There's a BIG difference.  Sure it's early in the season.  Sure there are a lot of positives to take out of tonight's game.  But those things can't be used as excuses for the Coach.  The bottom line is that it's Renney's job to give his team its best chance to win every night.  Thus far, Renney hasn't done that.  Renney is annoyingly stubborn when it comes to certain players.  Most notably, Malik and Hossa.  Keenan used to have a thing for certain players as well.  Remember guys like Doug Lidster and Brian Noonan?!?!  At least those guys didn't hurt the team.  Renney's use (or should I say gross over use) of Malik and Hossa is hurting the team. 

Malik shouldn't be in the lineup.  Period.  He contributed to two of Ottawa's three explosive goals.  These were the latest in a long list of Malik inspired debacles stretching back to last season.  The Rangers can no longer afford to waste a roster spot and $2.5m in cap space on Malik.  Malik MUST be traded or waived.  At the very least, it would be addition by subtraction.

Then there's Hossa.  This one is really starting to bother me.  I can see why Renney's intrigued by the kid.  He does have a tremendous combination of size and skill.  He does have a super-star brother.  But so what?  He clearly can't put it all together.  Any player who only plays inspired hockey while playing on the top line does not deserve a roster spot.  That kind of an attitude shows an utter lack of professionalism.  It's disrespectful to his other teammates, it's disrespectful to the organ-eye-zation, and worst of all it's disrespectful to the fans. 

If the Rangers had no other options, I could understand the need to continue to dress Hossa.  However, the Rangers do have other options.  In fact, continuing to play Hossa on the top line is actually hurting the team.  Prucha should get that spot.  The Rangers desperately need a finisher on their top lines.  Prucha is the closest thing the Rangers have to a pure goal scorer.  You would think that with Avery out of the lineup, Prucha would move up the depth chart and get a shot on one of the top two lines.  You'd be wrong!  Not with Tom Renney running the bench.  In the third period of tonight's game, Prucha got half a shift with Gomez and Jagr.  Not only did he almost score, he helped draw a power play that ultimately led to a 5 on 3 advantage for the Blueshirts.  In half a shift with the top line, Prucha accomplished more than Hossa has all season!  Did Renney take notice?  Did he give Prucha another shift with the big boys?  Nope. 

There's a fine line between patience and stubbornness.  There's an even finer line between stubbornness and stupidity.  It's time for Tom to wake up and stop being so stubborn stupid.         

Here We Go!

The regular season starts tomorrow night!  Unfortunately for me, it's a Jewish holiday so I will not be able to watch the game. 

The hockey world is filled with previews and predictions.  There's not much to add in those categories.  Besides, making predictions is really more for entertainment than anything else.  Especially in the new NHL where parity reigns supreme.  The truth is that there really isn't a team in the league that's dominant from top to bottom.  Many teams have overwhelming strengths.  Yet they all have fairly significant weaknesses as well.  Ultimately, the last team standing in June of 2008 will be determined primarily by hot goaltending and good health as opposed to any other factor(s).  That being said, I've prepared my top five lists.  I've got two lists for you here:  (1) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Win The Stanley Cup This Season and (2) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Not Win The Stanley Cup This Season.  Here we go!

I.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHYTHE RANGERS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  Offense.  This team is stacked up front.  The Rangers are quite possibly the deepest offensive team in the league.  Jagr, Gomez, Drury, Shanahan, Straka, Avery and Prucha.  That list doesn't even include Marcel Hossa (who came alive late last season) or the up and coming rookie Nigel Dawes (who may very well get a shot with the big club this season).  The Rangers have scorers on each of their top three lines. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  He's the King on Broadway.  After a slow start last season he really came alive to carry the team through their unbelievable run down the stretch.  He gives the team the confidence it needs to play an offensively oriented game.  When he's hot he gets into shooters' heads forcing them to try to pick their spots carefully, too carefully!

3.  Jaromir Jagr.  Yes he fits into reason number 1 (offense).  But Jagr is literally in a category of his own!  He's an old school super star who can literally change the course of a game (or a series) by himself.  To me Jagr is the Rangers' nuclear weapon.  His skill and game breaking ability are virtually unparalleled.  If opponents don't match up against him, he'll break the game open.  If they do match up against him, they'll be forced to pay less attention to the team's other stars.  A no loose situation for the Rangers!  Most importantly, he's in great shape and appears to be determined to win it all. 

4.  Transition/Speed.  This team can fly.  Period.  Of the top 9 forwards, 7 of them have serious wheels:  Jagr, Drury, Straka, Gomez, Prucha, Callahan and Avery.  As weak as the defense is, Roszival, Mara, Tyutin, Pock and Staal all have respectable mobility.  They can all make outlet passes as well.  We're obviously not going to have flashbacks of Leetch and Zubov, however, this team should be able to get down the ice in a hurry.

5.  Grit.  The Rangers are not what you would call a big bruising team.  Nonetheless, they do possess a handsome serving of team grit.  Avery loves the rough stuff.  Drury plays a fearless in your face style.  Shanny's big and strong (albeit slow!) and he's earned high marks for dropping the gloves in the preseason to stand up for teammates.  Jagr may not be tough but he's absolutely huge.  Trying to get body position on him will wear out even the biggest and strongest opponents.  Prucha and Callahan are fearless cannonballs.  Dubinsky is a big strong physical presence.  Even Gomez has good size (5'11" 200lbs.) and is used to playing Atlantic division hockey.  Hollweg is a physical presence.  Betts is a gritty player and Colton Orr is a legitimate heavyweight.  On defense, Roszival and Tyutin played like warriors down the stretch.  Although neither is overly physical, they both have good size and know how to use their bodies.  Strudwick is a tough player.  Staal has good size (although he is young and has some filling out to do) and he seems to be proficient at playing the angles well.  Malik has great size... forget it!   The bottom line is that although no one will mistake this team for the old Broad Street Bullies, the Broadway Blueshirts can handle the physical demands of a long and grueling Stanley Cup tournament.      

II.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHY THE RANGERS WILL NOT WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY.  The Rangers' opening night roster will apparently feature up to 10 new players who were not on the opening night roster last season.  That's a huge turnover.  An adjustment period seems inevitable.  If that happens, it's not outside the realm of possibility for the Rangers to find themselves in the same boat they were in last season: being forced to play playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the posteason.  The Rangers' offense is their strength, yet we don't even know if the forwards will form a cohesive unit.  The Gomez-Jagr experiment has already been put on the back burner (for now) and the season hasn't even started!  Chemistry makes the Rangers' offense a double edged sword: it could turn out to be tops in the league or it could wind up being far less then the sum of its (very significant) parts. 

2.  Defense.  Enough said!

3.  #2 Goalie.  Right now there is none.  At least not an NHLer.  Even though Lundqvist is expected to play the lion's share of games, it is very important to have a reliable back up.  It's one thing to play 70 games a season because you are an elite goaltender who can and should carry that kind of a load.  It's a very different thing to play 70 games in a season in part because there is no adequate back up.  The latter creates a lot of unnecessary stress and pressure.  Goaltending is already the most psychologically grueling position in the sport, Hank doesn't need any extra adversity. 

4.  The "Kid" Line.  The 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or......  Dubinsky may prove ill suited to handle the pressure of anchoring an important line for a contending team in his rookie season.  Callahan was impressive down the stretch, but he's also a rookie having played a grand total of 24 NHL games in his career (regular season and playoffs combined).  2/3's of the Rangers' kid line has a grand total of 30 games of NHL experience between them (regular season and playoffs combined).  Then there's the Prucha factor: he looks ready to break out.  Is it in his best interests to be lined up with two gritty rookies rather then on a more offensively oriented line?  Prucha had great chemistry with Jagr as a rookie.  Why not put him on Jagr's left and move Straka to the left of Dubinsky?  The Rangers don't really have a pure goal scorer in the prime of his career right now.  Prucha could be that guy.  But will he be while playing with Dubinsky and Callahan?  Like I said, the 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or...... 

5.  Specialty Teams/Flow.  Another double edged sword for the Rangers.  On paper, the specialty teams look to be pretty impressive.  However, could this be a case of relying on too few players to do too many things?  Drury will get significant time on the power play, penalty kill and even strength.  Ditto for Shanny. Ditto for Avery.  Ditto for Straka.  Maybe even a ditto for Gomez.  In fact, Blair Betts seems to be the only player who will not be asked to "do it all".  In the "New NHL" a lot of time is spent on special teams play.  If many of the teams top players on on the ice killing penalties, who does Renney send out for that very important first even strength shift? Jagr will be rested, but Straka and Drury won't be.  Gomez may be rested but Shanny and Avery won't be.  Renney will be forced to mix and match his lines which hurts the teams' flow.  The same thing will happen after power plays.  Apparently, Renney has recognized this potential problem and has decided to keep his top two lines primarily intact for power plays.  That will make it easier for him (although certainly not easy) to continue rolling his lines after the power play is over.  You might think that I'm being hyper sensitive here, but these little things make a big difference in a long season and an even longer (in some respects!) playoff tournament.      

It should be a great season in New York.  Here we go!                

Someone's Got To Step Up

We all know that two of the biggest keys for the Rangers' upcoming season are goaltending and chemistry.  Lundqvist has to continue to stand on his head.  Not just because goaltenders are the most important players for any team (especially in the playoffs).  Not just because the Rangers' defense is thin and Lundqvist will have to erase their inevitable mistakes.  But also because the Rangers will probably experience some serious growing pains throughout the season as their new faces struggle to adjust.  Lundqvist will be called upon to keep the ship afloat during those periods. 

The other obvious key to the season is team chemistry.  If the team can adjust and come together quickly, it should be a great season on Broadway.  If not, well...... 

There is, however, a third key:  Someone's got to step up.  I'm not talking about Lundqvist, Jagr, Gomez or Drury.  Those players are expected to step up.  They must step up or the Rangers' will not have serious success.  I'm talking about a "surprise" performance. 

Two seasons ago the Rangers surprised the hockey world by qualifying for the playoffs.  Obviously Jagr was a huge reason for their success. The other main ingredient that season was a "surprise" performance by a young goalie named Henrik Lundqvist.  Let's not forget the 30 goal outburst from a relatively unheralded rookie named Petr Prucha.  How about the high energy, high octane performance from the HMO line (Hollweg, Moore and Ortmeyer) that came as a very pleasant "surprise".  Two seasons ago, Jagr was phenomenal.  He gets paid to do that!  Ditto for Straka and Nylander.  The "surprise" performances, however, were vital in putting the Rangers over the top. 

Let's take a look at last season.  The big two (Jagr and Lundqvist) started slowly.  Not surprisingly the Rangers floundered.  Then Sather pulls the trigger and acquires the controversial Sean Avery.  People expected Avery to add some much needed grit and attitude.  No one expected the "surprise" performance that followed.   Remember Jagr's quote echoed shortly after the Avery trade, "We need more than Sean Avery right now".  That pretty much summed up the league's sentiment on Avery's worth.  No one expected Avery to totally re-energize the club the way he did.  In hindsight, however, it was Avery's "surprise" performance that helped propel the Rangers into the playoffs.  On a much smaller scale the Rangers' also got a "surprise" performance from Ryan Callahan.  His determined play allowed Renney to ice a highly competitive and energetic third line of Prucha, Cullen and Callahan.

So like I said, someone's got to step up this season.  We all know that the top players must perform in order for this team to succeed.  There's just no getting around that.  However, we also need a pleasant "surprise" or two (or three!).  So here's my list of the potential unsung "surprise" heroes to watch for this season:

1.  Petr Prucha.  I love this kid.  He's skilled, gritty and fearless.  If Prucha can breakout with a 30 something goal performance (not at all unreasonable), he'll add tremendous balance to the Rangers' forward lines.  The stumbling block for Prucha will be ice time.  Prucha doesn't seem to be a favorite of Renney's.  If he gets buried on the third line without meaningful power play minutes it will be hard for him to produce.  If he gets stuck with a rookie centerman like Dubinsky, it'll be even harder to produce! 

2.  Marcel Hossa.  He's not one of my favorites.  There's even some talk of him possibly not making the team!  However, it's hard to ignore his combination of size, strength and skill.  More importantly, Renney seems to really believe in this kid.  For whatever reason, he'll probably get more of an opportunity to shine than Prucha.  If Hossa responds with a 25-30 goal performance, he may well be the Rangers' "surprise" contributor this season.   

3.  Marc Staal.  I didn't get to watch him play much thus far (a bunch of the pre-season games fell out during Jewish holidays).  However, the people that did get to see him play are saying good things.  Defense is a tough position to learn and in a perfect world, Staal would get a chance to shine in Hartford before making the jump to Broadway.  This is NOT a perfect world and the Rangers' blue line is very far from perfect.  So it looks like Staal will at least start the season in New York.  If this kid steps up he could provide much needed talent and stability to the Rangers Achilles heel.   

4.  Blair Betts.  No that's not a typo!  Everyone has Betts cemented into the role of fourth line center.  The Rangers' line combinations are definitely a work in progress.  It wouldn't shock me to see Betts work his way to the third line.  He plays hard, he skates fairly well and he's not at all lost in the offensive zone.  Admittedly, this is not plan "A" for the Rangers third line.  However, don't discount the possibility of Betts stepping up and solidifying the third line. 

5.  Nigel Dawes.  Dawes may not survive the final cuts which should be announced soon.  I was unimpressed by what I saw of him thus far (although admittedly, I didn't see much!)  He seems to get knocked off the puck too easily.  That being said, there's no denying that he's got the skill and determination to succeed.  If the Rangers can figure out a way to get him some quality minutes he could be this years pleasant "surprise". 

6.  Brandon Dubinsky.  As of now (with the final cuts not yet being announced), Dubinsky looks to have the inside track as the team's third line center.  I like the kid.  He's big and strong and not afraid to mix it up.  Personally, I wouldn't give him the job though.  The Rangers need a quality, reliable third line center.  First, the team will already rely too heavily on its top two lines, those guys need a rest from time to time.  In order to give them that rest, the team needs a solid third line.  Second, Prucha and Callahan look to be on the verge of break out years.  Is it fair to either player to saddle them with a rookie centerman not known for his offensive capability?  Don't get me wrong, I like Dubinsky.  He's my kind of player.  However, I'm not sure that the timing is right.  Nonetheless, if given the opportunity I hope he can "surprise" me. 

It should be a great season on Broadway.  Especially if someone unexpected can step it up.             

            

You Can't Hurry Love

Did you ever try to set someone up on a date?  You have this buddy that's single and your wife or girlfriend has a friend that's also single and you think that they'd be perfect for each other.  You know the drill, you have your wife/girlfriend call her friend while you call your buddy.  You tell your buddy how perfect this girl is for him and your wife/girlfriend does the same on her end.  Everyone's all excited, your friends agree to exchange numbers and ultimately they go out on their date.  Nine out of ten times it just doesn't work!  Maybe their expectations were too high after getting hyped up about the "perfect" date.  Maybe there's a bit too much pressure knowing that all of their friends will be waiting to hear about how things went.  Maybe the atmosphere is just too artificial and too planned.  Maybe it's all of the above! 

Then there's this scenario: You've got a buddy that's single.  Your wife/girlfriend has a friend that's also single.  Once again, you think that they'd be perfect for each other.  So you plan a night out with a bunch of your friends.  You invite a bunch of friends including your single friend and your wife/girlfriend's single friend.  You might make casual reference to your single friends that there's going to be someone there that you'd like them to meet.  Or maybe you don't say anything at all.  You get the two of them together in a nice relaxed atmosphere with no preconceived notions or expectations.  They're each just part of a larger group that's gone out for a night of fun.  At some point in the night, they talk to each other.  No pressure, no expectations, just some conversation.  Maybe sparks fly, maybe they don't.  The bottom line is that you just let the chips fall where they may.  Even if sparks don't fly right off the bat, if they've made a pleasant impression on each other there's nothing stopping you from suggesting that they go out at some later date.  They've already met, they've already gotten to know each other a bit and all of a sudden it's not a "blind date" anymore.  Not surprisingly, this second scenario has a much higher success rate!  We probably all know of someone who has met their significant other on a group outing. 

By now you're probably wondering what the heck I'm talking about?!?!  Isn't it somewhat obvious?  I'm talking about the Rangers' line combinations!  Conventional wisdom says that Gomez will start with Jagr and Drury will start with Avery and Shanny.  Up until today, I've agreed with those combinations.  But over lunch today it hit me: you can't hurry love! 

Here's my proposal:  Let's not force Jagr and Gomez into a relationship!  Moreover, let's not even allow them to "date"right away!  Instead, let's start the season playing Jagr with some of his old running mates.  Here's what I propose:

Hossa- Straka- Jagr

Avery- Gomez- Shanny

Prucha- Drury- Callahan

We know from past experience that Jagr will be able to function with Straka and Hossa.  That line may not be as effective as the Jagr-Nylander combo was, but it will be functional.  More importantly, there will be no unnecessary pressure on the first line to try to manufacture instant chemistry. 

Starting Gomez on the second line will allow him to be the puck carrier and play maker he has always been.  More importantly, lining Gomez with Shanny and Avery will create much less pressure on Gomez to immediately manufacture chemistry.  He won't have the pressure and the expectations of having to immediately mesh with #68.  The guy will have enough on his plate early on as he adjusts to life in the Big Apple.

Drury with Prucha and Callahan could be a blessing in disguise.  On the one hand, you'd like to try to keep your top players on the top two lines in order to maximize each players ice time.  On the other hand, Drury's high energy and high intensity game might blend very well with young, hungry, gritty and skilled players (especially Prucha). 

By setting the lines this way, Renney would be taking a lot of the pressure off of his players to deliver instant success.  Ultimately, the best thing for the team would be for either Gomez or Drury to click with Jagr.  However, with so many early season adjustments in store for this team, is it really necessary to hurry things?  There will be plenty of opportunities as the season progresses to get Gomez and Jagr together.  Perhaps they can start their "relationship" on the power play.  Inevitably, the Rangers will have to juggle lines during the course of a game.  Maybe Drury and Straka will be exhausted after long penalty kills necessitating a quick shift for Jagr and Gomez.  Perhaps a player will go down with an injury and Jagr and Gomez will have to hit the ice together.  Eventually, they'll have a good shift together and progress as a line in a more natural and less forced manner.

The regular season is a funny thing.  On the one hand it sometimes seems unnecessarily long.  On the other hand it can get late very early with a bad start.  The line combinations that I propose minimize the "getting to know you" stage as much as possible.  The worst thing that can happen to this club would be for it to stumble badly out of the gate.  The Rangers have nothing to loose by bringing Jagr and Gomez together slowly.  On the other hand, a forced relationship that gets off to a rocky start could have more long lasting and disastrous consequences.

Make no mistake, this is not a reaction to the embarrassing Philly loss.  It's certainly not a case of pushing the "panic button".  It's simply a recognition that you can't hurry love!  Let me know how you'd like to see Renney line 'em up.                     

Lundqvist Holds Key To The City

Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the Rangers' first two pre-season games as they fell out at the very beginning and the very end of one of Judaism's holiest days of the year: Yom Kippur.  From what I've read, however, it doesn't seem as though I missed much.  Especially not in the second game against Philly! 

Not surprisingly, whatever chemistry Gomez and Jagr seemed to develop at the practice rink didn't translate onto the ice during their exhibition match versus Philly.  Obviously it's extremely early in the season and their is absolutely no cause for concern...yet!  Expecting instant game chemistry between offensive minded skilled forwards is unrealistic.  That's especially true in the pre-season when players are still working through their off-season rust. 

That being said, there's also no denying that it may take some time for the Rangers' to develop chemistry and the all important team identity.  The Rangers' underwent a major overhaul this summer.  That's a lot for any team to adjust to.  How much more so for a team like the Rangers that is first learning how to win again after nearly a decade in the abyss. 

That's why Lundqvist may very well be the most important player heading into the season:  If he plays well he'll keep the team in  most games as they struggle to adjust to one another and their own individual roles.  With the amount of individual talent this team has, they'll be able to score some opportunistic goals here and there in order to win some games that they should have lost based on their play.  If Lundqvist plays well he can help "steal" some of these games for his teammates as they struggle through their adjustment phase.  Those "stolen" points will prove crucial down the stretch.

On the other hand, if Lundqvist starts slowly (as he did last season) the Rangers' may very well need to start playing playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the postseason. 

Goaltending has long been considered the most important position in hockey.  For this years Rangers that may surely hold true. Many people have felt that Lundqvist would have to stand on his head to mask the team's porous defense.  That's probably true.  Now, however, Lundqvist may have to stand on his head for another reason as well: to give his teammates some breathing room as they adjust to their new roles. 

Perhaps management was wise in not spending what little extra money the team has on Michael Peca.  Perhaps Slats & Co. should consider spending that money on a quality back-up to give Hank a little break here and there.  Let's not even talk about having an insurance policy in case of a .....(gulp!) injury to Lundqvist!                

Dear Glen: Sign Peca!

I've been getting a lot of complaints about my long hiatus.  I must say, it's pretty flattering!  Anyway, by now everyone has heard the growing speculation that the Rangers may be on the verge of signing Michael Peca.  According to John Dellapina, the hold up is that Slats & Co. are still deciding whether to go with Peca or one of the teams youngsters(Dubinsky or Anisimov).  Here's my open letter to Slats advocating the signing of Peca.  But first, a few ground rules:

1.  The contract must be for only 1 year;

2.  The salary must be $1.5m or less;

3.  The contract must not contain any form of "no trade" or "no movement" clauses; and

4.  Peca must pass his medical exams.

Assuming that those four points are met, here goes:

Dear Glen:

As a lifelong Ranger fan I feel compelled to thank you and your staff for turning things around on Broadway.  Enough with the pleasantries! SIGN MICHAEL PECA!  We're making a serious run for the Cup this season.  In order to do that, we need a legitimate third line centerman. 

The current roster does not have a player that can adequately fill that role:  (1) Martin Straka is not a natural centerman.  After last seasons playoff defeat it was plain for all to see that Straka was a weak link at center.  That's certainly not a knock against Marty, it simply is what it is.  The guy is an offensive minded (albeit defensively responsible) winger.  Additionally, he is certainly not a third line center (a role that is ideally filled by a defensive minded "energy" player).  (2)  Sean Avery is not an option either.  Avery thrived with the ice time and responsibility afforded to a top six forward.  Putting him on the third line will hinder his play.  Management is responsible for getting the most out of its assets (i.e., players), putting Avery on the third line runs counter to that responsibility.  (3)  Dubinsky and Anisimov look like excellent prospects.  Are either of them ready for the responsibility of anchoring the third line?  Playing in New York is tough.  Playing in New York when expectations are sky high is even tougher.  Does it make sense to throw either player into the fire when so much is at stake?  Will the development of either player be stunted by sending them to Hartford for another season?  If not, the risk reward ratio seems like a no brainer.  Besides, Peca will probably not play a full season which means either Dubinsky or Anisimov will get some playing time with the big club next season anyway. 

Let's not forget Prucha and Callahan.  Both players are heading into important seasons.  Prucha must regain his rookie form and prove that his weak play for much of last season was an aberration.  Callahan, on the other hand, must prove that his strong play down the stretch last season was not an aberration.  In all likelihood, Prucha and/or Callahan will be playing on the third line this season.  Is it fair to either of them to play with a rookie centerman at this critical juncture in their respective careers?  Both guys can and should play vital roles for our club for years to come.  Wouldn't it be wise to give them the greatest chance at succeeding by playing them with an experienced player like Peca? 

Peca will also add tremendous value as a penalty killer.  With the losses of Cullen and Ortmeyer, the team's penalty killing unit has taken a hit.  Sure Drury can kill penalties.  However, he's also going to be getting a lot of even strength ice time as well as power play ice time.  Why saddle him with primary PK responsibilities as well? 

Peca is a great face-off man as well.  Winning face-offs means greater puck possession.  For a team like New York with its questionable blue line, winning face offs is essential.  Loosing a defensive zone draw can cost us a game.  Lundqvist's weak puck control skills only exacerbates the problem.  Having a reliable face off man will take tremendous pressure off of our defense, don't underestimate this point.  Sure, Drury can take face-offs, but again, how much ice time can Drury be expected to handle?  If we have to use Drury for all of our defensive zone draws, will he be available for the offensive zone draws?  Will we be forced to disrupt our line changes in order to get Drury on the ice for every important draw (offensive and defensive?).

Finally, some people are saying that the money that the team would spend on Peca should be spent on a defenseman instead.  Granted, the blue line needs help.  However, where are you going to find a defenseman who can have the same potential impact as Michael Peca for $1.5m or less?  Adding another marginal d-man will not help this club and we don't have the cap space to add anything more than a marginal d-man.  Therefore, we are much better off spending a small sum for Peca (a guy who can add a lot to the team) as opposed to adding a marginal defenseman.

Glen, for whatever it's worth, I say go out and sign Peca!   

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part IV: Salary Cap Suicide?

So we've finally made it to the last installment of my four part analysis of the Gomez and Drury signings.  The last major issue to analyze is how the signings will effect the Rangers in light of the new salary cap system introduced in the NHL.  Some would have us believe that the teams' signings of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury have placed a noose around the team's financial neck for years to come.  We know that the team is up against the "cap wall"  for this season.  What about the future?  Will the Rangers be financially paralyzed for the 2008-09 season?  Take a look at this list:

1.  Brendan Shanahan:     $2.5m base.$2.8m bonuses:  $5.3m per season

2.  Martin Straka:            $3.3m per season

3.  Paul Mara:                  $3.0m per season

4.  Darius Kaspasraitis:    $2.989m per season

5.  Michal Rozsival:          $2.5m per season

6.  Jason Strudwick:         $500,000 per season

7.  Andrew Hutchinson:     $475,000 per season.

That's a list of players who's contracts are expiring after the upcoming season.  With the exception of Roszival (possibly), none of them will be back (unless they're willing to play for a steep discount).  What that means is that the Rangers will have over $18m of cap space just from these players. 

Sean Avery and his $1.9m contract will also expire at seasons end as does Marcel Hossa's $780,000 contract.  If the Rangers are unwilling or unable to resign either of these players, the cap picture looks even better.

Obviously, some of the teams core players will become RFA's looking for raises.  Most notably, Henrik Lundqvist and Fedor Tyutin. However, it appears as though signing these players shouldn't be a problem given the amount of money that will be freed up at seasons end.

Granted, the Rangers will have to fill the vacancies created by these players' departures.  Here's where the Rangers' critics jump in: they argue that since the team has committed nearly $15m per season for just two players, how can the Rangers possibly expect to have enough money left over to round out the rest of their roster?!?  They point to the Tampa Bay Lightning as an example of the dangers wrought by investing too much money into too few players.  These, critics, however, are missing one crucial point:  The Rangers have quality prospects who can be used to fill out roster spots, Tampa doesn't.  In fact, Hockey's Future ranked the Rangers sixth (6th) in the NHL in terms of the quality of its prospects while Tampa was ranked 29th!.   By filling roster spots with young players the Rangers will be able to keep their cap charge down since these players are still playing out their relatively cheap entry level contracts.  Here's a list (by position) of some notable prospects who should be ready to step in by 2008-09:

1.  Al Montoya- Goaltender.  This kid looks like the real deal and is probably ready to play in the NHL now.  The emergence of Lundqvist, however, makes Montoya the odd man out.  Look for the Rangers to trade him at some point.  He should be able to fetch a handsome return.

2.  Marc Staal- Defense.  All indications are that the Rangers have got themselves a gem.  Staal should definitely be able to take one of the roster spots that will become available with the departure of all of the aforementioned defenseman currently on the Rangers' roster.

3.  Bobby Sanguinetti- Defense.  Here's part of what Hockey's Future says, "Sanguinetti has the potential to be a member of an NHL first defensive pairing."   What I like most about the kid is that he's thrilled to be a Ranger having grown up idolizing Brian Leetch. 

The Rangers also have Thomas Pock and Dan Girardi who have already spent some time with the big club in promising stints.  These guys will presumably be able to fill some of the vacancies on the blue line in 2008-09.  The most important thing about them (in terms of salary cap analysis) is that they'll be relatively cheap.   

Up front, the Rangers have well known prospects Nigel Dawes,  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and Ryan Callahan battling for roster spots this season.  By 2008-09, some of these guys should be able to fill the spots vacated by Straka, Shannahan and perhaps Avery.  In addition, the Rangers also have a number of other quality prospects up front.  Most notably, Alex Bourret, Brodie Dupont and Lauri Korpikoski.  Last, but certainly not least is this seasons #1 draft pick Alexei Cherapanov who may very well turn into a special player for the New York Rangers. 

It would certainly appear that the Rangers have the young talent necessary to round out their roster.  If the team needed to look towards free agency to fill every roster spot then, perhaps, there would be cap trouble on the horizon.  Fortunately, however, that is not the case.  Some of these young players should be able to adequately fill roles that will be opened in the near future.  These players are still relatively cheap as they are playing under their entry level contracts.  Over-all, the cap outlook in New York looks pretty encouraging.

The beauty of the Gomez and Drury signings are that the Rangers have their core centerman locked up for years to come.  The incoming young talent will be asked to play supporting roles rather then primary ones.  That's a huge bonus for young players learning the ins and outs of the best league in all of hockey.  The presence of Gomez and Drury should help ease the transitions that these youngsters will face. 

The Blueshirt Bulletin recently ran a great feature praising the Rangers' ability to rebuild while dressing a competitive team.  With Gomez, Drury and Lunqvist in the fold and the impressive stable of young talent already in the system, the Rangers should be able to continue that trend into the foreseeable future.   

If the Rangers' youngsters do in fact realize their potential on Broadway, not only will the Rangers not be in cap trouble, on the contrary, New York fans may get to see the likes on Dany Heatley or Wade Redden  playing at The World's Most Famous Arena! 

It goes without saying that I give Slats & Co. two very enthusiastic thumbs up for the signings of Gomez and Drury.  The Rangers are unquestionably a better team today then they were at the end of last season.  Given the strength of the teams' prospects, I believe that the future cap outlook for the team is just fine.  The Rangers should be competitive for years to come with Gomez and Drury anchoring their top two lines. 

Don't forget to check out the first three parts of the analysis over here, here and here.    

Guest Feature: It's Our Time Now!

So I got an e-mail from one of my loyal readers who has something to say.  The sky is falling in the world of professional sports.  Fans the world over are clearly disenchanted by the "I'm above the law" attitude which seems so prevelent amongst so many sports super-stars today.  Hockey players, on the other hand, have a relatively squeaky clean "good guy" image.  Are you thinking what I'm thinking?  My loyal reader definitely is and he gives us his take on what all the sports madness means to the NHL and its fans.

If anyone out there has something (hockey related) to say and is looking for a platform to say it from, feel free to e-mail your guest features to me.  As long as they're postable, I'll do my best to post them (whether or not I agree with the particular point of view).  Just keep 'em clean, I am a "Rabbi" you know!  Without further adieu, enjoy the read:      

There comes a time in every young man's life when he has to either seize the opportunity before him or he will watch it pass him by. For some that moment comes early, typically with a girl in high school whose curiosity to explore leads you to the school's back stairwell. Others learn how to seize the opportunity when they find something to sell to their friends in the college dorm -- you know, radios and stuff like that, yeah, that's the ticket -- radios! For those of us who are really slow, we finally learn how to make our move out of pure necessity, like when we suggest to our parents that they might have a really good time taking their grandkids to the diner for a few hours (we parents are so thoughtful!), just so we can have a simple moment of peace and quiet in the house. But those opportunities are always there, and the key is to learn to make our move.

What does this have to do with hockey, you ask. Simple. Our lovely sport is the slacker who has let opportunity after opportunity fly by time and time again. The 80's dynasties were great, but the league wasn't smart enough to get a TV contract in the U.S. Gretzky came to L.A., and the league had a decent TV contract, but it allowed the game to become slowed down by defensive play when it should have been catering to the Great One's talents.  The league was more concerned with expanding throughout California then with improving its product. The Rangers finally won a championship and the league responded with a strike. The list goes on into this decade. Time and time again.

But maybe today will be different. The rest of the sports world is in disarray. Day after day we learn how bad things have become for the other sports, leaving a huge gap in the lives of sports fans, just waiting to be filled. But will the NHL have a response? We'll see.

Look at baseball. The single most impressive record in the sport (arguably in ALL of sports) is about to be broken, but the sport and its fans are feeling as much dread as anticipation. Fans grew up with an idealistic vision of the game and don't know how to deal with the evidence before their eyes. To cope, fans somehow pretend the question is WHETHER Bonds took steroids, and how that affects the integrity of the game. Please. Have you seen the size of Barry Bonds' skull? He's like a bobblehead doll of his former self. A person's head doesn't get that big (while other parts presumably get teenie weenie!) without pharmaceutical intervention. The problem for baseball, the real problem, is that Bonds may be the best player to be a modern day Incredible Hulk wannabe, but he's hardly the only one. The game was manipulated and the joy of baseball is, in many ways, gone. Will fans ever be able to watch a player put on 20 pounds in an offseason and start hitting 460 foot homers without immediately assuming the player is cheating the system? Maybe, but it will take some time.

Football's not in much better shape. Steroids isn't the issue here, since everyone is secretly at peace with the fact that players all of a sudden can be 360 pounds and run a 4.6/40. But there's a different problem ruining things for football fans -- the realization that many of the players have gone from eccentric to downright sociopathic. I speak, of course, of the Mike Vick saga, which may represent a turning point in the way we look at our athletes in general. For years, football players have done all sorts of insane things -- stabbing people in night clubs; raping women in dorm rooms; driving while drunk, coked up and shooting a handgun. You name the violent crime, a football player has done it in recent years. So why the shift when Vick tortures some dogs? Is it that man's best friend is that much higher on the social totem pole than humans with two x chromosomes? I don't think so (although the implication of that theory is a whole different conversation). I think people have slowly grown sick of athletes getting away with things that you and I can't do. How many jobs and professions would let you act with impunity? For years athletes have lived by a different standard, and Michael Vick doing unthinkable things to puppies has made us finally rebel. We say we are disgusted with Vick, but maybe we're really saying we're disgusted with the double standard, and we won't accept it anymore. Will the NFL be able to clean up its act so its fans can get behind the players again? Maybe, but it will take some time.

Don't even get me started on basketball. For years, the horrible referreeing of big games has been a running joke. I think back to the old Jordan Bulls or the way the Knicks would get calls when needed to extend their playoff series (but never enough to win the big one), and the current ref gambling scandal makes perfect sense. What could explain the knack, year in and year out, of the refs to take over a game or two in the playoffs. Either the refs have been totally awful, or they were doing David Stern's bidding (some might say a gangster in his own right), or they've been on the take from the mob. But the key is that David Stern's greatest worry goes beyond one ref with a weakness for betting who got in with the wrong crowd. No way, I don't believe it. This ref is just the beginning. The feds don't bust people the instant they have a reason to suspect. Not for something like fixing NBA games. They were watching him for months or longer.  Given the nature of the investigation, is it reasonable to assume that the authorities didn't find something incriminating on other refs, players or coaches? That would be highly improbable, at best. And just wait for the other problems to come to the fore. Trust me, if I could short NBA stock, I would.

The other sports are no better (soccer has the Beckham arrival non-event while the biggest speed in biking is running through the tour leader's veins!), but you get the point.

Where is the NHL in all this? We already know the sport is the ultimate combination of grace and force. We know the players get into the game for the love of the game. We know that NHLers are amongst the nicest and most liekable athletes in all of professional sports.  But we need more.

What is the NHL doing with this opportunity? Are you showing that your players can commit heinous crimes to keep up with the likes of Genghis Khan? Are you showing that your players can juice up to gargantuan proportions? Are your refs beholden to a guy whose first name is "Don?" None of this. The best the NHL can offer is the Staal brothers having a decent bachelor party. Come on NHL -- show me something more. Please. Don't miss this opportunity.