The Hockey Rabbi

Someone's Got To Step Up

We all know that two of the biggest keys for the Rangers' upcoming season are goaltending and chemistry.  Lundqvist has to continue to stand on his head.  Not just because goaltenders are the most important players for any team (especially in the playoffs).  Not just because the Rangers' defense is thin and Lundqvist will have to erase their inevitable mistakes.  But also because the Rangers will probably experience some serious growing pains throughout the season as their new faces struggle to adjust.  Lundqvist will be called upon to keep the ship afloat during those periods. 

The other obvious key to the season is team chemistry.  If the team can adjust and come together quickly, it should be a great season on Broadway.  If not, well...... 

There is, however, a third key:  Someone's got to step up.  I'm not talking about Lundqvist, Jagr, Gomez or Drury.  Those players are expected to step up.  They must step up or the Rangers' will not have serious success.  I'm talking about a "surprise" performance. 

Two seasons ago the Rangers surprised the hockey world by qualifying for the playoffs.  Obviously Jagr was a huge reason for their success. The other main ingredient that season was a "surprise" performance by a young goalie named Henrik Lundqvist.  Let's not forget the 30 goal outburst from a relatively unheralded rookie named Petr Prucha.  How about the high energy, high octane performance from the HMO line (Hollweg, Moore and Ortmeyer) that came as a very pleasant "surprise".  Two seasons ago, Jagr was phenomenal.  He gets paid to do that!  Ditto for Straka and Nylander.  The "surprise" performances, however, were vital in putting the Rangers over the top. 

Let's take a look at last season.  The big two (Jagr and Lundqvist) started slowly.  Not surprisingly the Rangers floundered.  Then Sather pulls the trigger and acquires the controversial Sean Avery.  People expected Avery to add some much needed grit and attitude.  No one expected the "surprise" performance that followed.   Remember Jagr's quote echoed shortly after the Avery trade, "We need more than Sean Avery right now".  That pretty much summed up the league's sentiment on Avery's worth.  No one expected Avery to totally re-energize the club the way he did.  In hindsight, however, it was Avery's "surprise" performance that helped propel the Rangers into the playoffs.  On a much smaller scale the Rangers' also got a "surprise" performance from Ryan Callahan.  His determined play allowed Renney to ice a highly competitive and energetic third line of Prucha, Cullen and Callahan.

So like I said, someone's got to step up this season.  We all know that the top players must perform in order for this team to succeed.  There's just no getting around that.  However, we also need a pleasant "surprise" or two (or three!).  So here's my list of the potential unsung "surprise" heroes to watch for this season:

1.  Petr Prucha.  I love this kid.  He's skilled, gritty and fearless.  If Prucha can breakout with a 30 something goal performance (not at all unreasonable), he'll add tremendous balance to the Rangers' forward lines.  The stumbling block for Prucha will be ice time.  Prucha doesn't seem to be a favorite of Renney's.  If he gets buried on the third line without meaningful power play minutes it will be hard for him to produce.  If he gets stuck with a rookie centerman like Dubinsky, it'll be even harder to produce! 

2.  Marcel Hossa.  He's not one of my favorites.  There's even some talk of him possibly not making the team!  However, it's hard to ignore his combination of size, strength and skill.  More importantly, Renney seems to really believe in this kid.  For whatever reason, he'll probably get more of an opportunity to shine than Prucha.  If Hossa responds with a 25-30 goal performance, he may well be the Rangers' "surprise" contributor this season.   

3.  Marc Staal.  I didn't get to watch him play much thus far (a bunch of the pre-season games fell out during Jewish holidays).  However, the people that did get to see him play are saying good things.  Defense is a tough position to learn and in a perfect world, Staal would get a chance to shine in Hartford before making the jump to Broadway.  This is NOT a perfect world and the Rangers' blue line is very far from perfect.  So it looks like Staal will at least start the season in New York.  If this kid steps up he could provide much needed talent and stability to the Rangers Achilles heel.   

4.  Blair Betts.  No that's not a typo!  Everyone has Betts cemented into the role of fourth line center.  The Rangers' line combinations are definitely a work in progress.  It wouldn't shock me to see Betts work his way to the third line.  He plays hard, he skates fairly well and he's not at all lost in the offensive zone.  Admittedly, this is not plan "A" for the Rangers third line.  However, don't discount the possibility of Betts stepping up and solidifying the third line. 

5.  Nigel Dawes.  Dawes may not survive the final cuts which should be announced soon.  I was unimpressed by what I saw of him thus far (although admittedly, I didn't see much!)  He seems to get knocked off the puck too easily.  That being said, there's no denying that he's got the skill and determination to succeed.  If the Rangers can figure out a way to get him some quality minutes he could be this years pleasant "surprise". 

6.  Brandon Dubinsky.  As of now (with the final cuts not yet being announced), Dubinsky looks to have the inside track as the team's third line center.  I like the kid.  He's big and strong and not afraid to mix it up.  Personally, I wouldn't give him the job though.  The Rangers need a quality, reliable third line center.  First, the team will already rely too heavily on its top two lines, those guys need a rest from time to time.  In order to give them that rest, the team needs a solid third line.  Second, Prucha and Callahan look to be on the verge of break out years.  Is it fair to either player to saddle them with a rookie centerman not known for his offensive capability?  Don't get me wrong, I like Dubinsky.  He's my kind of player.  However, I'm not sure that the timing is right.  Nonetheless, if given the opportunity I hope he can "surprise" me. 

It should be a great season on Broadway.  Especially if someone unexpected can step it up.             

            

Dear Glen: Sign Peca!

I've been getting a lot of complaints about my long hiatus.  I must say, it's pretty flattering!  Anyway, by now everyone has heard the growing speculation that the Rangers may be on the verge of signing Michael Peca.  According to John Dellapina, the hold up is that Slats & Co. are still deciding whether to go with Peca or one of the teams youngsters(Dubinsky or Anisimov).  Here's my open letter to Slats advocating the signing of Peca.  But first, a few ground rules:

1.  The contract must be for only 1 year;

2.  The salary must be $1.5m or less;

3.  The contract must not contain any form of "no trade" or "no movement" clauses; and

4.  Peca must pass his medical exams.

Assuming that those four points are met, here goes:

Dear Glen:

As a lifelong Ranger fan I feel compelled to thank you and your staff for turning things around on Broadway.  Enough with the pleasantries! SIGN MICHAEL PECA!  We're making a serious run for the Cup this season.  In order to do that, we need a legitimate third line centerman. 

The current roster does not have a player that can adequately fill that role:  (1) Martin Straka is not a natural centerman.  After last seasons playoff defeat it was plain for all to see that Straka was a weak link at center.  That's certainly not a knock against Marty, it simply is what it is.  The guy is an offensive minded (albeit defensively responsible) winger.  Additionally, he is certainly not a third line center (a role that is ideally filled by a defensive minded "energy" player).  (2)  Sean Avery is not an option either.  Avery thrived with the ice time and responsibility afforded to a top six forward.  Putting him on the third line will hinder his play.  Management is responsible for getting the most out of its assets (i.e., players), putting Avery on the third line runs counter to that responsibility.  (3)  Dubinsky and Anisimov look like excellent prospects.  Are either of them ready for the responsibility of anchoring the third line?  Playing in New York is tough.  Playing in New York when expectations are sky high is even tougher.  Does it make sense to throw either player into the fire when so much is at stake?  Will the development of either player be stunted by sending them to Hartford for another season?  If not, the risk reward ratio seems like a no brainer.  Besides, Peca will probably not play a full season which means either Dubinsky or Anisimov will get some playing time with the big club next season anyway. 

Let's not forget Prucha and Callahan.  Both players are heading into important seasons.  Prucha must regain his rookie form and prove that his weak play for much of last season was an aberration.  Callahan, on the other hand, must prove that his strong play down the stretch last season was not an aberration.  In all likelihood, Prucha and/or Callahan will be playing on the third line this season.  Is it fair to either of them to play with a rookie centerman at this critical juncture in their respective careers?  Both guys can and should play vital roles for our club for years to come.  Wouldn't it be wise to give them the greatest chance at succeeding by playing them with an experienced player like Peca? 

Peca will also add tremendous value as a penalty killer.  With the losses of Cullen and Ortmeyer, the team's penalty killing unit has taken a hit.  Sure Drury can kill penalties.  However, he's also going to be getting a lot of even strength ice time as well as power play ice time.  Why saddle him with primary PK responsibilities as well? 

Peca is a great face-off man as well.  Winning face-offs means greater puck possession.  For a team like New York with its questionable blue line, winning face offs is essential.  Loosing a defensive zone draw can cost us a game.  Lundqvist's weak puck control skills only exacerbates the problem.  Having a reliable face off man will take tremendous pressure off of our defense, don't underestimate this point.  Sure, Drury can take face-offs, but again, how much ice time can Drury be expected to handle?  If we have to use Drury for all of our defensive zone draws, will he be available for the offensive zone draws?  Will we be forced to disrupt our line changes in order to get Drury on the ice for every important draw (offensive and defensive?).

Finally, some people are saying that the money that the team would spend on Peca should be spent on a defenseman instead.  Granted, the blue line needs help.  However, where are you going to find a defenseman who can have the same potential impact as Michael Peca for $1.5m or less?  Adding another marginal d-man will not help this club and we don't have the cap space to add anything more than a marginal d-man.  Therefore, we are much better off spending a small sum for Peca (a guy who can add a lot to the team) as opposed to adding a marginal defenseman.

Glen, for whatever it's worth, I say go out and sign Peca!   

The Capologist

According to my calculations (based on salary numbers provided by nhlnumbers.com), the Rangers are currently sitting at $46,880,000.00 for this coming season.  This figure factors in only $2.5m for Shanny (his base salary).  It does not include Kasparitis' salary.  It does include Marc Staal and newly acquired Andrew Hutchinson and it also includes Al Montoya's salary of $1.834m.  Most importantly, this figure does not include the salaries of Sean Avery or Marcel Hossa.  Basically, the Rangers have just under $3.5m left of cap space.  Here are some thoughts:

1.  Cullen's trade was without question a salary dump.  Some speculated that Cullen was traded as a precursor to some other move.  Others speculated that the Cullen trade was a gamble because the Rangers didn't necessarily have to move him to create cap space.  If the numbers listed by nhlnumbers.com are accurate, Larry Brooks was wrong.  The Rangers did have to move him (or at least someone).  The Rangers did have to create cap space to make room for Avery.  You can question why they decided to dump Cullen instead of Malik or Mara, but you can't question the need to dump a salary in that ball park.  To me, the question of who to move really boiled down to Mara or Cullen.  Malik makes less money than the other two and the coaching staff (and Jagr) like him.  In a perfect world I would have preferred to see Mara dumped, but this isn't a perfect world! 

2.  Kasparitis is not coming back.  Or is he?  There have been some reports that Kaspar has worked himself back into great shape and is focused on making it back to the big club.  Unfortunately for him, there doesn't seem to be any room for his salary on Broadway.  If the reports are true, it would be a bit of a shame:  the Rangers could use the snarl that Kaspar once brought to the blue line.  On the other hand, well.....:  if he's sent back down to Hartford he would presumably have to clear waivers.  If he is back in shape and some team decides to take a shot on him by claiming him (he is entering the last year of his contract), would the Rangers be forced to pick up half of his salary?  If so, would they be forced to take a cap hit for that?  If so, will that effect the Rangers' decision to send him back down? Do the Rangers want approximately $1.5m in dead cap charges this year in the event that he is claimed?  Would a rival GM with cap space claim Kaspar just to stick it to NY?   

3.  Who will be Lundqvist's back-up this season?  I haven't heard to much discussion on this issue, but to me this is a huge question.  The Rangers defense is clearly inadequate for a team that's looking to seriously compete for the cup.  The only way it can work is if the goaltending is solid enough to mask as many of the team's defensive deficiencies as possible.  If any team looses their #1 goalie they'd be in trouble.  How much more so for the Rangers!  Is Montoya ready for the job?  Probably.  The real question, however, is can the Rangers afford a cap charge of close to $2m annually for a rookie backup who doesn't have much of a future with the club (barring an unforeseen career threatening injury to Lundqvist)?  If, on the other hand, the Rangers send him back down to Hartford, who will be the team's backup goalie?    Valiquette is cheap ( a cap charge of just over $600,000.00), but do you trust him with the job?  I certainly do not.  Kevin Weekes signed with Jersey for under $700,000.00 per year, I hope we don't end up regretting that! 

I expect Montoya to be traded sooner rather than later.  The problem is how the Rangers will be able to fit the return under the cap?  There's a part of me that's happy about this problem because it almost insures that the Rangers will have to get young (read: "inexpensive") players in return for Montoya.  I don't mean bad players, I simply mean young players who are either still playing out their entry level contracts or who are still a few years off from unrestricted free agency and, therefore, don't have that leverage in negotiating new and expensive contracts.  I would hate to see the kid get moved for a guy like Jovanovski. 

4.  Here's an interesting question:  if not for Jagr, wouldn't you rather have seen Martin Straka's $3.3m salary dumped over that of Cullen?  Cullen filled an important role as the third line center who played a good high energy game that seemed to mesh very well with Prucha and Callahan.  Straka's role with the team, on the other hand, is limited primarily to his relationship with Jagr.  Straka could play on Jagr's left side, however, that causes some issues: (1) where do you put Hossa? and (2) Jagr is better off with a big player on his line, someone who can effectively work the corners so that Jagr doesn't have to.  Straka, theoretically could play center, but on which line?  Straka is certainly a better offensive player than Cullen.  However, Straka doesn't have a clearly defined role on this team.  Cullen did.  Chemistry, chemistry!

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