The Hockey Rabbi

Food For Thought

The Rangers are staring summer in the face right now.  So are their fans!  There's so much to say and so little time. Here's a little food for thought:

1.  Jagr is a great captain.  I don't care what anyone around the league says about the guy.  I don't care what happened in the past.  The guy's playing with passion.  He wants to win.  He's pushing his 36 year old body to the max.  As far as I'm concerned, he should be proud of himself.  I know I am.

2.  Is it just me, or is Lundqvist making anyone else just a tad nervous?  Every goalie is bound to let up "bad" goals.  It happens.  Even the greatest goalies are human and every human makes mistakes.  One of the things that turns a great goalie into a champion is mental toughness.  For goalies, part of what that means is the ability to shake off a "bad" goal.  Thus far in his career, Lundqvist doesn't have that kind of mental toughness.  That deficiency doesn't bode well for the Rangers championship chances. 

3.  Finished.  A big part of the reason that the Rangers are pretty much finished is because they can't finish.  The Rangers fire 42 thousand shots on goal and only score 3 goals.  Isn't it a shame that Renney decided to finish Prucha?!?  I'm not saying Prucha's a superstar or that he would have been the difference in this series.  However, for all of the Rangers offensive weapons what they're clearly lacking is a true "finisher".  The coach's job is to manage his assets.  He clearly dropped the ball with Prucha.

   

A Penny For Your Thoughts...

It's good to get some time to write again!  I've been extremely busy at work, thank G-d.  Anyway, just a few thoughts from the last few weeks.

1.  Sean Avery.  For those of us, myself included, who argued against Avery's off-season antics, there is no denying his mid-season value.  The Rangers are a different team when Avery is in the lineup.  If the guy can manage to stay out of his own way, he may very well have found a long term home in New York. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  We knew that he would have to carry the team early.  We didn't know he'd have to single handedly carry them!  Lundqvist has been extraordinary for much of the season.  That's good news for the Rangers.  The bad news is that when he's been human, the Rangers have lost.

3.  0ffense.  I actually spelled it with a zero, not an "o"!  Need I say more? 

4.  Marc Staal.  Wow!  The kid is incredible.  The kid plays like a veteran.  A good veteran!  I think he's the best defenseman on the team.  I can't even imagine how good he's going to be once he fills out a little bit and gains some more experience. 

5.  Brandon Dubinsky.  Another wow!  In the off-season, I wanted the Rangers to sign Peca.  I'm thrilled that they didn't!  Dubinsky is an excellent hockey player.  He's got great hands, excellent instincts, great size and phenomenal fore-checking ability. 

6.  The 4th Line.  Kudos to Tom Renney & Co.  They managed to turn these guys into a reliable line.  Betts, Hollweg and Orr have earned the Coaches trust.  These guys have effectively reduced the amount of time that older players like Jagr, Shanny and Straka have to play.  That should pay some dividends as the season progresses.  It also forces opponents to play their fourth lines or run the risk of getting tired as games near their end. 

7.  Tom Renney.  After reading item #6, you might be surprised by what I'm about to write.  I don't think Renney is the right guy for the job.  He's too nice and he's too soft on his players.  He was the perfect coach to help the franchise turn the corner towards becoming a playoff club.  I don't think, however, that he's got what it takes to lead the team to real and meaningful success. 

Renney is the ultimate "player's coach".  He understands each players unique strengths and weaknesses and he tries, to the best of his ability, to put each player in their optimal circumstances.  He protects his players from the media and from public scrutiny in general.  He is careful not to bruise the delicate egos of his athletes, especially those of his super-stars.  Don't get me wrong, these are all virtues and admirable ones at that. 

So what's the problem?  The Rangers (like most if not all other teams) suffer from mental lapses.  They'll play exceptionally well for significant stretches of time and then they'll abandon the things that made them successful.  In response, Renney plays the role of the exceedingly patient, loving and all knowing Daddy.  He believes in his kids and knows that eventually they'll learn from their mistakes.  He doesn't punish them, he doesn't even lose his cool and he will certainly NEVER "call out" his older boys for setting bad examples for their younger siblings. 

The truth is that over the long haul, that approach probably makes the most sense.  Especially with the Rangers.  They are, after all, a veteran club with very capable leaders in the locker room.  They are a mature and proud bunch who will, if given the time, correct their own mistakes without the need for loud reminders. 

So again, what's the problem?  Time.  Sports are a microcosm of life, yet they are different.  In life, you have a lifetime to find yourself (which G-d willing means a very happy long time!).  In sports you don't.  You have a relatively short regular season and an even shorter playoff tournament.  If the Rangers get derailed when it counts, they will not have three or four games to "find themselves".  They'll be playing golf by then! 

G-d gave us two hands.  Jewish mysticism (also known as Kaballah) teaches that the right hand represents kindness while the left represents severity.  We have been given both of them for a reason.  Sometimes you have to be kind and patient.  Other times you have to crack the whip.  Renney is a very powerful "righty".  Most great coaches are ambidextrous!            

RANGERS LOSE, ISLES ARE LOSERS!

Admittedly, I missed most of last night's Rangers-Islanders game.  I only managed to catch the last 10 minutes of the game.

As I sat there watching those few minutes I was more then a little frustrated and angry.  On the one hand, you can't expect any team to win every game.  The Rangers had won four in a row.  They were playing their second game in as many nights.  Lundqvist has been super human and you can't expect that every night.

On the other hand, they were playing the Isles.  This team should be able to show up against the Isles no matter how tired they are.  If a game against their most bitter rivals doesn't get their adrenaline flowing, then there's an issue!  I sat there imagining the excuses Renney would probably make for his players after the game and it frustrated me.

Most of all, there was no escaping the fact that if Lundqvist doesn't stop everything, the Rangers still can't win.  That's a problem.  A huge problem. 

Then the final buzzer sounded.  My concern turned to anger as I imagined the joy my friend thedirtyboy (an Isles fan) was probably feeling as his beloved farm team accomplished the Long Island equivalent of winning the Cup. 

But then it happened.  The anger and frustration instantly subsided.  Instead all I felt was a strange and satisfying sense of pity for the icelanders.  What caused this massive emotional shift?  I watched as the hopelessly overshadowed icelanders lined up along their blue line and raised their sticks in victory to salute the crowd (which was almost half filled with icelander fans!).

Where have I seen that before?  Oh yeah! The Rangers started that trend.  Who would have ever thought that the Isles would shamelessly copy the Rangers?!?!  Oh but wait, the Isles are really being original.  You see, the Rangers line up at center ice while the Isles do something totally different and original by lining up along their blue line!!!  That was such a pathetic display of "Ranger Envy" that I couldn't even be angry about the loss.  I actually felt badly for the Isles.  They're so pathetically shameless.  Losers! 

Here We Go!

The regular season starts tomorrow night!  Unfortunately for me, it's a Jewish holiday so I will not be able to watch the game. 

The hockey world is filled with previews and predictions.  There's not much to add in those categories.  Besides, making predictions is really more for entertainment than anything else.  Especially in the new NHL where parity reigns supreme.  The truth is that there really isn't a team in the league that's dominant from top to bottom.  Many teams have overwhelming strengths.  Yet they all have fairly significant weaknesses as well.  Ultimately, the last team standing in June of 2008 will be determined primarily by hot goaltending and good health as opposed to any other factor(s).  That being said, I've prepared my top five lists.  I've got two lists for you here:  (1) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Win The Stanley Cup This Season and (2) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Not Win The Stanley Cup This Season.  Here we go!

I.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHYTHE RANGERS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  Offense.  This team is stacked up front.  The Rangers are quite possibly the deepest offensive team in the league.  Jagr, Gomez, Drury, Shanahan, Straka, Avery and Prucha.  That list doesn't even include Marcel Hossa (who came alive late last season) or the up and coming rookie Nigel Dawes (who may very well get a shot with the big club this season).  The Rangers have scorers on each of their top three lines. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  He's the King on Broadway.  After a slow start last season he really came alive to carry the team through their unbelievable run down the stretch.  He gives the team the confidence it needs to play an offensively oriented game.  When he's hot he gets into shooters' heads forcing them to try to pick their spots carefully, too carefully!

3.  Jaromir Jagr.  Yes he fits into reason number 1 (offense).  But Jagr is literally in a category of his own!  He's an old school super star who can literally change the course of a game (or a series) by himself.  To me Jagr is the Rangers' nuclear weapon.  His skill and game breaking ability are virtually unparalleled.  If opponents don't match up against him, he'll break the game open.  If they do match up against him, they'll be forced to pay less attention to the team's other stars.  A no loose situation for the Rangers!  Most importantly, he's in great shape and appears to be determined to win it all. 

4.  Transition/Speed.  This team can fly.  Period.  Of the top 9 forwards, 7 of them have serious wheels:  Jagr, Drury, Straka, Gomez, Prucha, Callahan and Avery.  As weak as the defense is, Roszival, Mara, Tyutin, Pock and Staal all have respectable mobility.  They can all make outlet passes as well.  We're obviously not going to have flashbacks of Leetch and Zubov, however, this team should be able to get down the ice in a hurry.

5.  Grit.  The Rangers are not what you would call a big bruising team.  Nonetheless, they do possess a handsome serving of team grit.  Avery loves the rough stuff.  Drury plays a fearless in your face style.  Shanny's big and strong (albeit slow!) and he's earned high marks for dropping the gloves in the preseason to stand up for teammates.  Jagr may not be tough but he's absolutely huge.  Trying to get body position on him will wear out even the biggest and strongest opponents.  Prucha and Callahan are fearless cannonballs.  Dubinsky is a big strong physical presence.  Even Gomez has good size (5'11" 200lbs.) and is used to playing Atlantic division hockey.  Hollweg is a physical presence.  Betts is a gritty player and Colton Orr is a legitimate heavyweight.  On defense, Roszival and Tyutin played like warriors down the stretch.  Although neither is overly physical, they both have good size and know how to use their bodies.  Strudwick is a tough player.  Staal has good size (although he is young and has some filling out to do) and he seems to be proficient at playing the angles well.  Malik has great size... forget it!   The bottom line is that although no one will mistake this team for the old Broad Street Bullies, the Broadway Blueshirts can handle the physical demands of a long and grueling Stanley Cup tournament.      

II.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHY THE RANGERS WILL NOT WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY.  The Rangers' opening night roster will apparently feature up to 10 new players who were not on the opening night roster last season.  That's a huge turnover.  An adjustment period seems inevitable.  If that happens, it's not outside the realm of possibility for the Rangers to find themselves in the same boat they were in last season: being forced to play playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the posteason.  The Rangers' offense is their strength, yet we don't even know if the forwards will form a cohesive unit.  The Gomez-Jagr experiment has already been put on the back burner (for now) and the season hasn't even started!  Chemistry makes the Rangers' offense a double edged sword: it could turn out to be tops in the league or it could wind up being far less then the sum of its (very significant) parts. 

2.  Defense.  Enough said!

3.  #2 Goalie.  Right now there is none.  At least not an NHLer.  Even though Lundqvist is expected to play the lion's share of games, it is very important to have a reliable back up.  It's one thing to play 70 games a season because you are an elite goaltender who can and should carry that kind of a load.  It's a very different thing to play 70 games in a season in part because there is no adequate back up.  The latter creates a lot of unnecessary stress and pressure.  Goaltending is already the most psychologically grueling position in the sport, Hank doesn't need any extra adversity. 

4.  The "Kid" Line.  The 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or......  Dubinsky may prove ill suited to handle the pressure of anchoring an important line for a contending team in his rookie season.  Callahan was impressive down the stretch, but he's also a rookie having played a grand total of 24 NHL games in his career (regular season and playoffs combined).  2/3's of the Rangers' kid line has a grand total of 30 games of NHL experience between them (regular season and playoffs combined).  Then there's the Prucha factor: he looks ready to break out.  Is it in his best interests to be lined up with two gritty rookies rather then on a more offensively oriented line?  Prucha had great chemistry with Jagr as a rookie.  Why not put him on Jagr's left and move Straka to the left of Dubinsky?  The Rangers don't really have a pure goal scorer in the prime of his career right now.  Prucha could be that guy.  But will he be while playing with Dubinsky and Callahan?  Like I said, the 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or...... 

5.  Specialty Teams/Flow.  Another double edged sword for the Rangers.  On paper, the specialty teams look to be pretty impressive.  However, could this be a case of relying on too few players to do too many things?  Drury will get significant time on the power play, penalty kill and even strength.  Ditto for Shanny. Ditto for Avery.  Ditto for Straka.  Maybe even a ditto for Gomez.  In fact, Blair Betts seems to be the only player who will not be asked to "do it all".  In the "New NHL" a lot of time is spent on special teams play.  If many of the teams top players on on the ice killing penalties, who does Renney send out for that very important first even strength shift? Jagr will be rested, but Straka and Drury won't be.  Gomez may be rested but Shanny and Avery won't be.  Renney will be forced to mix and match his lines which hurts the teams' flow.  The same thing will happen after power plays.  Apparently, Renney has recognized this potential problem and has decided to keep his top two lines primarily intact for power plays.  That will make it easier for him (although certainly not easy) to continue rolling his lines after the power play is over.  You might think that I'm being hyper sensitive here, but these little things make a big difference in a long season and an even longer (in some respects!) playoff tournament.      

It should be a great season in New York.  Here we go!                

Someone's Got To Step Up

We all know that two of the biggest keys for the Rangers' upcoming season are goaltending and chemistry.  Lundqvist has to continue to stand on his head.  Not just because goaltenders are the most important players for any team (especially in the playoffs).  Not just because the Rangers' defense is thin and Lundqvist will have to erase their inevitable mistakes.  But also because the Rangers will probably experience some serious growing pains throughout the season as their new faces struggle to adjust.  Lundqvist will be called upon to keep the ship afloat during those periods. 

The other obvious key to the season is team chemistry.  If the team can adjust and come together quickly, it should be a great season on Broadway.  If not, well...... 

There is, however, a third key:  Someone's got to step up.  I'm not talking about Lundqvist, Jagr, Gomez or Drury.  Those players are expected to step up.  They must step up or the Rangers' will not have serious success.  I'm talking about a "surprise" performance. 

Two seasons ago the Rangers surprised the hockey world by qualifying for the playoffs.  Obviously Jagr was a huge reason for their success. The other main ingredient that season was a "surprise" performance by a young goalie named Henrik Lundqvist.  Let's not forget the 30 goal outburst from a relatively unheralded rookie named Petr Prucha.  How about the high energy, high octane performance from the HMO line (Hollweg, Moore and Ortmeyer) that came as a very pleasant "surprise".  Two seasons ago, Jagr was phenomenal.  He gets paid to do that!  Ditto for Straka and Nylander.  The "surprise" performances, however, were vital in putting the Rangers over the top. 

Let's take a look at last season.  The big two (Jagr and Lundqvist) started slowly.  Not surprisingly the Rangers floundered.  Then Sather pulls the trigger and acquires the controversial Sean Avery.  People expected Avery to add some much needed grit and attitude.  No one expected the "surprise" performance that followed.   Remember Jagr's quote echoed shortly after the Avery trade, "We need more than Sean Avery right now".  That pretty much summed up the league's sentiment on Avery's worth.  No one expected Avery to totally re-energize the club the way he did.  In hindsight, however, it was Avery's "surprise" performance that helped propel the Rangers into the playoffs.  On a much smaller scale the Rangers' also got a "surprise" performance from Ryan Callahan.  His determined play allowed Renney to ice a highly competitive and energetic third line of Prucha, Cullen and Callahan.

So like I said, someone's got to step up this season.  We all know that the top players must perform in order for this team to succeed.  There's just no getting around that.  However, we also need a pleasant "surprise" or two (or three!).  So here's my list of the potential unsung "surprise" heroes to watch for this season:

1.  Petr Prucha.  I love this kid.  He's skilled, gritty and fearless.  If Prucha can breakout with a 30 something goal performance (not at all unreasonable), he'll add tremendous balance to the Rangers' forward lines.  The stumbling block for Prucha will be ice time.  Prucha doesn't seem to be a favorite of Renney's.  If he gets buried on the third line without meaningful power play minutes it will be hard for him to produce.  If he gets stuck with a rookie centerman like Dubinsky, it'll be even harder to produce! 

2.  Marcel Hossa.  He's not one of my favorites.  There's even some talk of him possibly not making the team!  However, it's hard to ignore his combination of size, strength and skill.  More importantly, Renney seems to really believe in this kid.  For whatever reason, he'll probably get more of an opportunity to shine than Prucha.  If Hossa responds with a 25-30 goal performance, he may well be the Rangers' "surprise" contributor this season.   

3.  Marc Staal.  I didn't get to watch him play much thus far (a bunch of the pre-season games fell out during Jewish holidays).  However, the people that did get to see him play are saying good things.  Defense is a tough position to learn and in a perfect world, Staal would get a chance to shine in Hartford before making the jump to Broadway.  This is NOT a perfect world and the Rangers' blue line is very far from perfect.  So it looks like Staal will at least start the season in New York.  If this kid steps up he could provide much needed talent and stability to the Rangers Achilles heel.   

4.  Blair Betts.  No that's not a typo!  Everyone has Betts cemented into the role of fourth line center.  The Rangers' line combinations are definitely a work in progress.  It wouldn't shock me to see Betts work his way to the third line.  He plays hard, he skates fairly well and he's not at all lost in the offensive zone.  Admittedly, this is not plan "A" for the Rangers third line.  However, don't discount the possibility of Betts stepping up and solidifying the third line. 

5.  Nigel Dawes.  Dawes may not survive the final cuts which should be announced soon.  I was unimpressed by what I saw of him thus far (although admittedly, I didn't see much!)  He seems to get knocked off the puck too easily.  That being said, there's no denying that he's got the skill and determination to succeed.  If the Rangers can figure out a way to get him some quality minutes he could be this years pleasant "surprise". 

6.  Brandon Dubinsky.  As of now (with the final cuts not yet being announced), Dubinsky looks to have the inside track as the team's third line center.  I like the kid.  He's big and strong and not afraid to mix it up.  Personally, I wouldn't give him the job though.  The Rangers need a quality, reliable third line center.  First, the team will already rely too heavily on its top two lines, those guys need a rest from time to time.  In order to give them that rest, the team needs a solid third line.  Second, Prucha and Callahan look to be on the verge of break out years.  Is it fair to either player to saddle them with a rookie centerman not known for his offensive capability?  Don't get me wrong, I like Dubinsky.  He's my kind of player.  However, I'm not sure that the timing is right.  Nonetheless, if given the opportunity I hope he can "surprise" me. 

It should be a great season on Broadway.  Especially if someone unexpected can step it up.             

            

Lundqvist Holds Key To The City

Unfortunately, I didn't get to watch the Rangers' first two pre-season games as they fell out at the very beginning and the very end of one of Judaism's holiest days of the year: Yom Kippur.  From what I've read, however, it doesn't seem as though I missed much.  Especially not in the second game against Philly! 

Not surprisingly, whatever chemistry Gomez and Jagr seemed to develop at the practice rink didn't translate onto the ice during their exhibition match versus Philly.  Obviously it's extremely early in the season and their is absolutely no cause for concern...yet!  Expecting instant game chemistry between offensive minded skilled forwards is unrealistic.  That's especially true in the pre-season when players are still working through their off-season rust. 

That being said, there's also no denying that it may take some time for the Rangers' to develop chemistry and the all important team identity.  The Rangers' underwent a major overhaul this summer.  That's a lot for any team to adjust to.  How much more so for a team like the Rangers that is first learning how to win again after nearly a decade in the abyss. 

That's why Lundqvist may very well be the most important player heading into the season:  If he plays well he'll keep the team in  most games as they struggle to adjust to one another and their own individual roles.  With the amount of individual talent this team has, they'll be able to score some opportunistic goals here and there in order to win some games that they should have lost based on their play.  If Lundqvist plays well he can help "steal" some of these games for his teammates as they struggle through their adjustment phase.  Those "stolen" points will prove crucial down the stretch.

On the other hand, if Lundqvist starts slowly (as he did last season) the Rangers' may very well need to start playing playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the postseason. 

Goaltending has long been considered the most important position in hockey.  For this years Rangers that may surely hold true. Many people have felt that Lundqvist would have to stand on his head to mask the team's porous defense.  That's probably true.  Now, however, Lundqvist may have to stand on his head for another reason as well: to give his teammates some breathing room as they adjust to their new roles. 

Perhaps management was wise in not spending what little extra money the team has on Michael Peca.  Perhaps Slats & Co. should consider spending that money on a quality back-up to give Hank a little break here and there.  Let's not even talk about having an insurance policy in case of a .....(gulp!) injury to Lundqvist!                

Dear Glen: Sign Peca!

I've been getting a lot of complaints about my long hiatus.  I must say, it's pretty flattering!  Anyway, by now everyone has heard the growing speculation that the Rangers may be on the verge of signing Michael Peca.  According to John Dellapina, the hold up is that Slats & Co. are still deciding whether to go with Peca or one of the teams youngsters(Dubinsky or Anisimov).  Here's my open letter to Slats advocating the signing of Peca.  But first, a few ground rules:

1.  The contract must be for only 1 year;

2.  The salary must be $1.5m or less;

3.  The contract must not contain any form of "no trade" or "no movement" clauses; and

4.  Peca must pass his medical exams.

Assuming that those four points are met, here goes:

Dear Glen:

As a lifelong Ranger fan I feel compelled to thank you and your staff for turning things around on Broadway.  Enough with the pleasantries! SIGN MICHAEL PECA!  We're making a serious run for the Cup this season.  In order to do that, we need a legitimate third line centerman. 

The current roster does not have a player that can adequately fill that role:  (1) Martin Straka is not a natural centerman.  After last seasons playoff defeat it was plain for all to see that Straka was a weak link at center.  That's certainly not a knock against Marty, it simply is what it is.  The guy is an offensive minded (albeit defensively responsible) winger.  Additionally, he is certainly not a third line center (a role that is ideally filled by a defensive minded "energy" player).  (2)  Sean Avery is not an option either.  Avery thrived with the ice time and responsibility afforded to a top six forward.  Putting him on the third line will hinder his play.  Management is responsible for getting the most out of its assets (i.e., players), putting Avery on the third line runs counter to that responsibility.  (3)  Dubinsky and Anisimov look like excellent prospects.  Are either of them ready for the responsibility of anchoring the third line?  Playing in New York is tough.  Playing in New York when expectations are sky high is even tougher.  Does it make sense to throw either player into the fire when so much is at stake?  Will the development of either player be stunted by sending them to Hartford for another season?  If not, the risk reward ratio seems like a no brainer.  Besides, Peca will probably not play a full season which means either Dubinsky or Anisimov will get some playing time with the big club next season anyway. 

Let's not forget Prucha and Callahan.  Both players are heading into important seasons.  Prucha must regain his rookie form and prove that his weak play for much of last season was an aberration.  Callahan, on the other hand, must prove that his strong play down the stretch last season was not an aberration.  In all likelihood, Prucha and/or Callahan will be playing on the third line this season.  Is it fair to either of them to play with a rookie centerman at this critical juncture in their respective careers?  Both guys can and should play vital roles for our club for years to come.  Wouldn't it be wise to give them the greatest chance at succeeding by playing them with an experienced player like Peca? 

Peca will also add tremendous value as a penalty killer.  With the losses of Cullen and Ortmeyer, the team's penalty killing unit has taken a hit.  Sure Drury can kill penalties.  However, he's also going to be getting a lot of even strength ice time as well as power play ice time.  Why saddle him with primary PK responsibilities as well? 

Peca is a great face-off man as well.  Winning face-offs means greater puck possession.  For a team like New York with its questionable blue line, winning face offs is essential.  Loosing a defensive zone draw can cost us a game.  Lundqvist's weak puck control skills only exacerbates the problem.  Having a reliable face off man will take tremendous pressure off of our defense, don't underestimate this point.  Sure, Drury can take face-offs, but again, how much ice time can Drury be expected to handle?  If we have to use Drury for all of our defensive zone draws, will he be available for the offensive zone draws?  Will we be forced to disrupt our line changes in order to get Drury on the ice for every important draw (offensive and defensive?).

Finally, some people are saying that the money that the team would spend on Peca should be spent on a defenseman instead.  Granted, the blue line needs help.  However, where are you going to find a defenseman who can have the same potential impact as Michael Peca for $1.5m or less?  Adding another marginal d-man will not help this club and we don't have the cap space to add anything more than a marginal d-man.  Therefore, we are much better off spending a small sum for Peca (a guy who can add a lot to the team) as opposed to adding a marginal defenseman.

Glen, for whatever it's worth, I say go out and sign Peca!   

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part IV: Salary Cap Suicide?

So we've finally made it to the last installment of my four part analysis of the Gomez and Drury signings.  The last major issue to analyze is how the signings will effect the Rangers in light of the new salary cap system introduced in the NHL.  Some would have us believe that the teams' signings of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury have placed a noose around the team's financial neck for years to come.  We know that the team is up against the "cap wall"  for this season.  What about the future?  Will the Rangers be financially paralyzed for the 2008-09 season?  Take a look at this list:

1.  Brendan Shanahan:     $2.5m base.$2.8m bonuses:  $5.3m per season

2.  Martin Straka:            $3.3m per season

3.  Paul Mara:                  $3.0m per season

4.  Darius Kaspasraitis:    $2.989m per season

5.  Michal Rozsival:          $2.5m per season

6.  Jason Strudwick:         $500,000 per season

7.  Andrew Hutchinson:     $475,000 per season.

That's a list of players who's contracts are expiring after the upcoming season.  With the exception of Roszival (possibly), none of them will be back (unless they're willing to play for a steep discount).  What that means is that the Rangers will have over $18m of cap space just from these players. 

Sean Avery and his $1.9m contract will also expire at seasons end as does Marcel Hossa's $780,000 contract.  If the Rangers are unwilling or unable to resign either of these players, the cap picture looks even better.

Obviously, some of the teams core players will become RFA's looking for raises.  Most notably, Henrik Lundqvist and Fedor Tyutin. However, it appears as though signing these players shouldn't be a problem given the amount of money that will be freed up at seasons end.

Granted, the Rangers will have to fill the vacancies created by these players' departures.  Here's where the Rangers' critics jump in: they argue that since the team has committed nearly $15m per season for just two players, how can the Rangers possibly expect to have enough money left over to round out the rest of their roster?!?  They point to the Tampa Bay Lightning as an example of the dangers wrought by investing too much money into too few players.  These, critics, however, are missing one crucial point:  The Rangers have quality prospects who can be used to fill out roster spots, Tampa doesn't.  In fact, Hockey's Future ranked the Rangers sixth (6th) in the NHL in terms of the quality of its prospects while Tampa was ranked 29th!.   By filling roster spots with young players the Rangers will be able to keep their cap charge down since these players are still playing out their relatively cheap entry level contracts.  Here's a list (by position) of some notable prospects who should be ready to step in by 2008-09:

1.  Al Montoya- Goaltender.  This kid looks like the real deal and is probably ready to play in the NHL now.  The emergence of Lundqvist, however, makes Montoya the odd man out.  Look for the Rangers to trade him at some point.  He should be able to fetch a handsome return.

2.  Marc Staal- Defense.  All indications are that the Rangers have got themselves a gem.  Staal should definitely be able to take one of the roster spots that will become available with the departure of all of the aforementioned defenseman currently on the Rangers' roster.

3.  Bobby Sanguinetti- Defense.  Here's part of what Hockey's Future says, "Sanguinetti has the potential to be a member of an NHL first defensive pairing."   What I like most about the kid is that he's thrilled to be a Ranger having grown up idolizing Brian Leetch. 

The Rangers also have Thomas Pock and Dan Girardi who have already spent some time with the big club in promising stints.  These guys will presumably be able to fill some of the vacancies on the blue line in 2008-09.  The most important thing about them (in terms of salary cap analysis) is that they'll be relatively cheap.   

Up front, the Rangers have well known prospects Nigel Dawes,  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and Ryan Callahan battling for roster spots this season.  By 2008-09, some of these guys should be able to fill the spots vacated by Straka, Shannahan and perhaps Avery.  In addition, the Rangers also have a number of other quality prospects up front.  Most notably, Alex Bourret, Brodie Dupont and Lauri Korpikoski.  Last, but certainly not least is this seasons #1 draft pick Alexei Cherapanov who may very well turn into a special player for the New York Rangers. 

It would certainly appear that the Rangers have the young talent necessary to round out their roster.  If the team needed to look towards free agency to fill every roster spot then, perhaps, there would be cap trouble on the horizon.  Fortunately, however, that is not the case.  Some of these young players should be able to adequately fill roles that will be opened in the near future.  These players are still relatively cheap as they are playing under their entry level contracts.  Over-all, the cap outlook in New York looks pretty encouraging.

The beauty of the Gomez and Drury signings are that the Rangers have their core centerman locked up for years to come.  The incoming young talent will be asked to play supporting roles rather then primary ones.  That's a huge bonus for young players learning the ins and outs of the best league in all of hockey.  The presence of Gomez and Drury should help ease the transitions that these youngsters will face. 

The Blueshirt Bulletin recently ran a great feature praising the Rangers' ability to rebuild while dressing a competitive team.  With Gomez, Drury and Lunqvist in the fold and the impressive stable of young talent already in the system, the Rangers should be able to continue that trend into the foreseeable future.   

If the Rangers' youngsters do in fact realize their potential on Broadway, not only will the Rangers not be in cap trouble, on the contrary, New York fans may get to see the likes on Dany Heatley or Wade Redden  playing at The World's Most Famous Arena! 

It goes without saying that I give Slats & Co. two very enthusiastic thumbs up for the signings of Gomez and Drury.  The Rangers are unquestionably a better team today then they were at the end of last season.  Given the strength of the teams' prospects, I believe that the future cap outlook for the team is just fine.  The Rangers should be competitive for years to come with Gomez and Drury anchoring their top two lines. 

Don't forget to check out the first three parts of the analysis over here, here and here.    

Gomez "Gets" It

Like it or not, as Jagr goes, so go the New York Rangers.  Sure Lundqvist has to be great.  Goalies always do.  However, in Jagr the Rangers have a "secret weapon" of sorts: an absolutely dominant offensive force who can singlehandedly determine the course of a game.  How many other players in the league deserve the kind of attention opponents are forced to pay Jagr?  The Rangers' allegedly temperamental super star gives New York something that few if any other true contenders in the league have.

It looks like newly signed center Scott Gomez gets it.  In the current edition of The Hockey News (which I recently bought and highly recommend), Gomez is quoted as saying, "The way Jagr played at the end of the year, you could tell he was back on top.  You're playing with one of the greatest players who ever played the game and it's going to be an honor to be in his presence.  I've seen what this guy can do and to have him as a teammate is amazing."

Let's face it.  Jagr was revitalized in New York in part because management gave him a vote of confidence by building the team in number 68's image.  Jagr was surrounded by the types of players who would help him play his game and succeed.  The most important piece of that puzzle was Nylander.  Now Nylander's gone.  Many Ranger fans (and hockey types in general) have wondered how this will effect Jagr.  Is the allegedly "Temperamental One" going to be offended?  Will he again become "disinterested"?  Will he feel as though the Rangers are going in a different direction by bringing in North American players to fill critical roles?  Have the Rangers decided to rely less on Jagr and his style of play because they don't think they can win a championship playing "European Hockey"? 

Gomez is no fool.  He knows that in all likelihood he will be the first player asked to try to skate in Nylander's spot.  That's why I applaud him for praising Jagr the way he has.  He's building good will.  More importantly, he's letting Jagr know that Jagr is still "The Man". 

When the Rangers signed Brendan Shanahan prior to last season, some wondered (myself included) whether or not an "old school" North American player like Shanny would fit in New York.  Shanny quickly embraced his role as assistant to Jagr.  There were no (known) clashes in the locker room between the two.  On the contrary, when playing the power play together, these two players showed so much deference (read "respect") to the other that neither of them would shoot the puck!  Choosing instead to pass to the other far too often!  The marriage has worked so well that Jagr was very vocal at seasons end about the need to resign Shanahan.

Gomez gets it.  He's following in Shanahan's footsteps.  He's actively trying to fit in by saying the right things regarding the right person.  Obviously it's still very early and it's always easier to talk the talk then it is to walk the walk.  So far, however, Gomez gets it.  That's good news for the Rangers and bad news for the rest of the league. 

Shanahan and Lundqvist: Taking One For The Team?

I'm thrilled that the Rangers resigned Lundqvist and Shanahan.  But let's get one thing straight:  neither guy signed for a "hometown discount" nor did either of them "take one for the team".  Take a look:

Brendan Shanahan:

He gets a base salary of $2.5m.  He gets a $2m bonus if he plays in 10 games this season.  He gets another $800,000 in playoff related bonuses (I'm not sure what the playoff bonus threshold is, but based on a post from the Blueshirt Bulletin it seems as though he'll get that $800,000 if the Rangers make the playoffs).  Shanny can earn up to $5.3m this season! 

Barring an unforseen freak accident, the guy will play 10 games this season.  Obviously, anything is possible and any one of us could get hit by a bus the next time we go outside (G-d forbid!).  But let's be realistic, the guy will earn at least $4.5m this year.  He's actually getting a raise!  When the Rangers signed him before last season he was coming off a 40 goal 81 point season.  He warranted $4m per year.  This past season he put up 29 goals and 62 points.  Logically, he should get a raise!?!? 

If the $800,000 playoff bonus really does kick in upon the Rangers qualifying for the playoffs, there is a very real possibility that Shanny will earn $5.3m.  That's a 32.5% pay raise over this past season!  Obviously, there's always a chance that the Rangers will not qualify for the playoffs.  But I'll tell you what, that's a calculated risk that I'd be willing to take.  Even if you want to argue that Shanny's was given a pay hike because of the rising salary cap, the reality is that the cap did not increase by 32.5%.

It is true, however, that Shanahan did refrain from actively negotiating with other teams.  However, those other teams did come knockin' on Shanny's door.  Does anyone think that Shanny would still be here if another team came up with a huge offer?  Does anyone think that Shanny could have done better than $4.5 -$5.3 million on the open market?  Perhaps he could have gotten around that much in guaranteed money.  However, the Rangers deal is practically guaranteed.  And the small risk of him not hitting the 10 game mark is clearly outweighed by his strong personal preference to stay on Broadway. 

I'm happy he resigned.  He's a critical piece to the Rangers puzzle.  But let's call a spade a spade: the man did very well for himself.  He did NOT take one for the team.

Henrik Lundqvist:

Here were his options: (1) sign a long term deal with the Rangers worth over $5m per year, (2) go to salary arbitration and let the chips fall where they may on a 1 year deal or (3) sign a 1 year deal before getting to arbitration.

Option 1 was not happening and Hank knew it.  It's not that the Rangers don't want to lock him up long term, they simply don't have the cap space to do it this season.

Options 2 & 3:  What would he have realistically been awarded by an arbitrator?  The two best comparables I could find for Lundqvist based on age, statistics and/or NHL success were Cam Ward who has an average salary of $2.667 or (gasp!!!) Rick DiPietro who has an average salary of $4.5m.  Hank signed for $4.25m.  Yes he might have been awarded another $250,000, but he could have easily lost $1.583m.  The guy made a great deal! He eliminated his entire 7 figure risk for only $250,000!  That's no "home town discount" . 

Once again, I'm happy he resigned.  He's a critical piece to the Rangers puzzle.  But let's call a spade a spade: the man did very well for himself.  He did NOT take one for the team.

Enough from me, let's here what you think: