The Hockey Rabbi

The Kaspar Quandry (VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM)

So Darius Kasparitis shows up at camp some 20 pounds lighter and ready to blaze a comeback trail to New York.  That would be great news if it weren't for that little thing called the salary cap!  With almost no room left under the all important cap the Rangers can ill afford to retain Kaspar and his nearly $3 million annual salary.  So what's a team to do?  Trade him?  Send him to Hartford? 

OPTION #1:  TRADE HIM:

The easiest thing for Slats to do would be to trade Kaspar.  Move him for whatever the team could get.  However, this option is probably unlikely: Kaspar missed all of last season.  He reportedly came to camp out of shape which apparently had something to do with personal issues he was dealing with at the time.  Given his age and his salary, it's unlikely an NHL club would be willing to take a risk on him.  In today's day and age, $3m is too much money to spend on an old d-man who missed a season due to personal problems.

OPTION #2:  SEND HIM TO HARTFORD:

Many observers are predicting that this scenario is likely to materialize.  I'm not so sure!  After struggling to read through the relevant parts of the C.B.A. (which is no easy task!) it appears as though section 50.9(g)(ii) sets forth that if a player like Kaspar is sent to the minors he must first clear waivers.  Any NHL club may then claim him off of waivers.  The claiming club would only be responsible for 1/2 of his salary while the Rangers would be responsible for the other 1/2 (and, of course, the 1/2 that the Rangers would be responsible for would count against the teams cap charge this season). 

At almost $3m per season, Kaspar's probably not worth the risk to many NHL clubs.  However, at just under $1.5m per season, Kaspar may very well be worth it.  Let's not forget that Kaspar is in the final year of his contract.  Therefore, a claiming club would only be taking a short term and relatively "cheap" risk. 

Then there's the Oiler$ factor:  Krazy Kevin Lowe targeted Dustin Penner in Anaheim in part because he knew the Ducks had cap issues.  If the Ducks matched the offer sheet, Lowe would have successfully financially handcuffed one of his rivals.  If the Ducks failed to match (which is what actually happened) the Oiler$ would have successfully obtained their desired player.  A no lose situation for The Krazy One.  Guess what folks, the Rangers have cap issues of their own.  They passed on Peca because they felt that the $1-1.5m he would have cost was not worth the risk.  Would anyone be shocked to see a rival club like the Icelanders claim Kaspar just to stick it to the Rangers?  How about the Devils who are surely still feeling the sting from the Scott Gomez defection.  A rival GM with cap room could certainly see the Kaspar situation as a no lose situation:  if Kaspar rebounds he's well worth the $1.5m for just one season, if he doesn't rebound...well....it was just $1.5m for one season a worthwhile investment considering that it contributed to the hated Ranger$' cap concerns. 

Surely, Slats & Co. are aware of this possibility.  That's why it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Malik or Mara get traded if Kaspar looks ready to rejoin the big club.   

**UPDATE** Thanks to dimanyr for pointing out that the 50% cap charge would only apply if a team claimed Kaspar off of re-entry waivers (i.e. if the Rangers tried recalling kaspar from Hartford to the big club).  I e-mailed John Dellapina to ask him to clarify this point and, as usual, John kindly responded almost immediately.  According to John, the Rangers would only be on the hook for 1/2 of Kaspar's salary if he was claimed off of re-entry waivers.  Sorry for the confusion and thanks to dimanyr and John Dellapina (Rangers' beat writer for the NY Daily News.  Check out the link to John's blog in my blogroll!).    

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part IV: Salary Cap Suicide?

So we've finally made it to the last installment of my four part analysis of the Gomez and Drury signings.  The last major issue to analyze is how the signings will effect the Rangers in light of the new salary cap system introduced in the NHL.  Some would have us believe that the teams' signings of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury have placed a noose around the team's financial neck for years to come.  We know that the team is up against the "cap wall"  for this season.  What about the future?  Will the Rangers be financially paralyzed for the 2008-09 season?  Take a look at this list:

1.  Brendan Shanahan:     $2.5m base.$2.8m bonuses:  $5.3m per season

2.  Martin Straka:            $3.3m per season

3.  Paul Mara:                  $3.0m per season

4.  Darius Kaspasraitis:    $2.989m per season

5.  Michal Rozsival:          $2.5m per season

6.  Jason Strudwick:         $500,000 per season

7.  Andrew Hutchinson:     $475,000 per season.

That's a list of players who's contracts are expiring after the upcoming season.  With the exception of Roszival (possibly), none of them will be back (unless they're willing to play for a steep discount).  What that means is that the Rangers will have over $18m of cap space just from these players. 

Sean Avery and his $1.9m contract will also expire at seasons end as does Marcel Hossa's $780,000 contract.  If the Rangers are unwilling or unable to resign either of these players, the cap picture looks even better.

Obviously, some of the teams core players will become RFA's looking for raises.  Most notably, Henrik Lundqvist and Fedor Tyutin. However, it appears as though signing these players shouldn't be a problem given the amount of money that will be freed up at seasons end.

Granted, the Rangers will have to fill the vacancies created by these players' departures.  Here's where the Rangers' critics jump in: they argue that since the team has committed nearly $15m per season for just two players, how can the Rangers possibly expect to have enough money left over to round out the rest of their roster?!?  They point to the Tampa Bay Lightning as an example of the dangers wrought by investing too much money into too few players.  These, critics, however, are missing one crucial point:  The Rangers have quality prospects who can be used to fill out roster spots, Tampa doesn't.  In fact, Hockey's Future ranked the Rangers sixth (6th) in the NHL in terms of the quality of its prospects while Tampa was ranked 29th!.   By filling roster spots with young players the Rangers will be able to keep their cap charge down since these players are still playing out their relatively cheap entry level contracts.  Here's a list (by position) of some notable prospects who should be ready to step in by 2008-09:

1.  Al Montoya- Goaltender.  This kid looks like the real deal and is probably ready to play in the NHL now.  The emergence of Lundqvist, however, makes Montoya the odd man out.  Look for the Rangers to trade him at some point.  He should be able to fetch a handsome return.

2.  Marc Staal- Defense.  All indications are that the Rangers have got themselves a gem.  Staal should definitely be able to take one of the roster spots that will become available with the departure of all of the aforementioned defenseman currently on the Rangers' roster.

3.  Bobby Sanguinetti- Defense.  Here's part of what Hockey's Future says, "Sanguinetti has the potential to be a member of an NHL first defensive pairing."   What I like most about the kid is that he's thrilled to be a Ranger having grown up idolizing Brian Leetch. 

The Rangers also have Thomas Pock and Dan Girardi who have already spent some time with the big club in promising stints.  These guys will presumably be able to fill some of the vacancies on the blue line in 2008-09.  The most important thing about them (in terms of salary cap analysis) is that they'll be relatively cheap.   

Up front, the Rangers have well known prospects Nigel Dawes,  Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and Ryan Callahan battling for roster spots this season.  By 2008-09, some of these guys should be able to fill the spots vacated by Straka, Shannahan and perhaps Avery.  In addition, the Rangers also have a number of other quality prospects up front.  Most notably, Alex Bourret, Brodie Dupont and Lauri Korpikoski.  Last, but certainly not least is this seasons #1 draft pick Alexei Cherapanov who may very well turn into a special player for the New York Rangers. 

It would certainly appear that the Rangers have the young talent necessary to round out their roster.  If the team needed to look towards free agency to fill every roster spot then, perhaps, there would be cap trouble on the horizon.  Fortunately, however, that is not the case.  Some of these young players should be able to adequately fill roles that will be opened in the near future.  These players are still relatively cheap as they are playing under their entry level contracts.  Over-all, the cap outlook in New York looks pretty encouraging.

The beauty of the Gomez and Drury signings are that the Rangers have their core centerman locked up for years to come.  The incoming young talent will be asked to play supporting roles rather then primary ones.  That's a huge bonus for young players learning the ins and outs of the best league in all of hockey.  The presence of Gomez and Drury should help ease the transitions that these youngsters will face. 

The Blueshirt Bulletin recently ran a great feature praising the Rangers' ability to rebuild while dressing a competitive team.  With Gomez, Drury and Lunqvist in the fold and the impressive stable of young talent already in the system, the Rangers should be able to continue that trend into the foreseeable future.   

If the Rangers' youngsters do in fact realize their potential on Broadway, not only will the Rangers not be in cap trouble, on the contrary, New York fans may get to see the likes on Dany Heatley or Wade Redden  playing at The World's Most Famous Arena! 

It goes without saying that I give Slats & Co. two very enthusiastic thumbs up for the signings of Gomez and Drury.  The Rangers are unquestionably a better team today then they were at the end of last season.  Given the strength of the teams' prospects, I believe that the future cap outlook for the team is just fine.  The Rangers should be competitive for years to come with Gomez and Drury anchoring their top two lines. 

Don't forget to check out the first three parts of the analysis over here, here and here.    

The Capologist

According to my calculations (based on salary numbers provided by nhlnumbers.com), the Rangers are currently sitting at $46,880,000.00 for this coming season.  This figure factors in only $2.5m for Shanny (his base salary).  It does not include Kasparitis' salary.  It does include Marc Staal and newly acquired Andrew Hutchinson and it also includes Al Montoya's salary of $1.834m.  Most importantly, this figure does not include the salaries of Sean Avery or Marcel Hossa.  Basically, the Rangers have just under $3.5m left of cap space.  Here are some thoughts:

1.  Cullen's trade was without question a salary dump.  Some speculated that Cullen was traded as a precursor to some other move.  Others speculated that the Cullen trade was a gamble because the Rangers didn't necessarily have to move him to create cap space.  If the numbers listed by nhlnumbers.com are accurate, Larry Brooks was wrong.  The Rangers did have to move him (or at least someone).  The Rangers did have to create cap space to make room for Avery.  You can question why they decided to dump Cullen instead of Malik or Mara, but you can't question the need to dump a salary in that ball park.  To me, the question of who to move really boiled down to Mara or Cullen.  Malik makes less money than the other two and the coaching staff (and Jagr) like him.  In a perfect world I would have preferred to see Mara dumped, but this isn't a perfect world! 

2.  Kasparitis is not coming back.  Or is he?  There have been some reports that Kaspar has worked himself back into great shape and is focused on making it back to the big club.  Unfortunately for him, there doesn't seem to be any room for his salary on Broadway.  If the reports are true, it would be a bit of a shame:  the Rangers could use the snarl that Kaspar once brought to the blue line.  On the other hand, well.....:  if he's sent back down to Hartford he would presumably have to clear waivers.  If he is back in shape and some team decides to take a shot on him by claiming him (he is entering the last year of his contract), would the Rangers be forced to pick up half of his salary?  If so, would they be forced to take a cap hit for that?  If so, will that effect the Rangers' decision to send him back down? Do the Rangers want approximately $1.5m in dead cap charges this year in the event that he is claimed?  Would a rival GM with cap space claim Kaspar just to stick it to NY?   

3.  Who will be Lundqvist's back-up this season?  I haven't heard to much discussion on this issue, but to me this is a huge question.  The Rangers defense is clearly inadequate for a team that's looking to seriously compete for the cup.  The only way it can work is if the goaltending is solid enough to mask as many of the team's defensive deficiencies as possible.  If any team looses their #1 goalie they'd be in trouble.  How much more so for the Rangers!  Is Montoya ready for the job?  Probably.  The real question, however, is can the Rangers afford a cap charge of close to $2m annually for a rookie backup who doesn't have much of a future with the club (barring an unforeseen career threatening injury to Lundqvist)?  If, on the other hand, the Rangers send him back down to Hartford, who will be the team's backup goalie?    Valiquette is cheap ( a cap charge of just over $600,000.00), but do you trust him with the job?  I certainly do not.  Kevin Weekes signed with Jersey for under $700,000.00 per year, I hope we don't end up regretting that! 

I expect Montoya to be traded sooner rather than later.  The problem is how the Rangers will be able to fit the return under the cap?  There's a part of me that's happy about this problem because it almost insures that the Rangers will have to get young (read: "inexpensive") players in return for Montoya.  I don't mean bad players, I simply mean young players who are either still playing out their entry level contracts or who are still a few years off from unrestricted free agency and, therefore, don't have that leverage in negotiating new and expensive contracts.  I would hate to see the kid get moved for a guy like Jovanovski. 

4.  Here's an interesting question:  if not for Jagr, wouldn't you rather have seen Martin Straka's $3.3m salary dumped over that of Cullen?  Cullen filled an important role as the third line center who played a good high energy game that seemed to mesh very well with Prucha and Callahan.  Straka's role with the team, on the other hand, is limited primarily to his relationship with Jagr.  Straka could play on Jagr's left side, however, that causes some issues: (1) where do you put Hossa? and (2) Jagr is better off with a big player on his line, someone who can effectively work the corners so that Jagr doesn't have to.  Straka, theoretically could play center, but on which line?  Straka is certainly a better offensive player than Cullen.  However, Straka doesn't have a clearly defined role on this team.  Cullen did.  Chemistry, chemistry!

Check out the fan poll below and get me your comments!