The Hockey Rabbi

A Penny For Your Thoughts...

It's good to get some time to write again!  I've been extremely busy at work, thank G-d.  Anyway, just a few thoughts from the last few weeks.

1.  Sean Avery.  For those of us, myself included, who argued against Avery's off-season antics, there is no denying his mid-season value.  The Rangers are a different team when Avery is in the lineup.  If the guy can manage to stay out of his own way, he may very well have found a long term home in New York. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  We knew that he would have to carry the team early.  We didn't know he'd have to single handedly carry them!  Lundqvist has been extraordinary for much of the season.  That's good news for the Rangers.  The bad news is that when he's been human, the Rangers have lost.

3.  0ffense.  I actually spelled it with a zero, not an "o"!  Need I say more? 

4.  Marc Staal.  Wow!  The kid is incredible.  The kid plays like a veteran.  A good veteran!  I think he's the best defenseman on the team.  I can't even imagine how good he's going to be once he fills out a little bit and gains some more experience. 

5.  Brandon Dubinsky.  Another wow!  In the off-season, I wanted the Rangers to sign Peca.  I'm thrilled that they didn't!  Dubinsky is an excellent hockey player.  He's got great hands, excellent instincts, great size and phenomenal fore-checking ability. 

6.  The 4th Line.  Kudos to Tom Renney & Co.  They managed to turn these guys into a reliable line.  Betts, Hollweg and Orr have earned the Coaches trust.  These guys have effectively reduced the amount of time that older players like Jagr, Shanny and Straka have to play.  That should pay some dividends as the season progresses.  It also forces opponents to play their fourth lines or run the risk of getting tired as games near their end. 

7.  Tom Renney.  After reading item #6, you might be surprised by what I'm about to write.  I don't think Renney is the right guy for the job.  He's too nice and he's too soft on his players.  He was the perfect coach to help the franchise turn the corner towards becoming a playoff club.  I don't think, however, that he's got what it takes to lead the team to real and meaningful success. 

Renney is the ultimate "player's coach".  He understands each players unique strengths and weaknesses and he tries, to the best of his ability, to put each player in their optimal circumstances.  He protects his players from the media and from public scrutiny in general.  He is careful not to bruise the delicate egos of his athletes, especially those of his super-stars.  Don't get me wrong, these are all virtues and admirable ones at that. 

So what's the problem?  The Rangers (like most if not all other teams) suffer from mental lapses.  They'll play exceptionally well for significant stretches of time and then they'll abandon the things that made them successful.  In response, Renney plays the role of the exceedingly patient, loving and all knowing Daddy.  He believes in his kids and knows that eventually they'll learn from their mistakes.  He doesn't punish them, he doesn't even lose his cool and he will certainly NEVER "call out" his older boys for setting bad examples for their younger siblings. 

The truth is that over the long haul, that approach probably makes the most sense.  Especially with the Rangers.  They are, after all, a veteran club with very capable leaders in the locker room.  They are a mature and proud bunch who will, if given the time, correct their own mistakes without the need for loud reminders. 

So again, what's the problem?  Time.  Sports are a microcosm of life, yet they are different.  In life, you have a lifetime to find yourself (which G-d willing means a very happy long time!).  In sports you don't.  You have a relatively short regular season and an even shorter playoff tournament.  If the Rangers get derailed when it counts, they will not have three or four games to "find themselves".  They'll be playing golf by then! 

G-d gave us two hands.  Jewish mysticism (also known as Kaballah) teaches that the right hand represents kindness while the left represents severity.  We have been given both of them for a reason.  Sometimes you have to be kind and patient.  Other times you have to crack the whip.  Renney is a very powerful "righty".  Most great coaches are ambidextrous!            

Here We Go!

The regular season starts tomorrow night!  Unfortunately for me, it's a Jewish holiday so I will not be able to watch the game. 

The hockey world is filled with previews and predictions.  There's not much to add in those categories.  Besides, making predictions is really more for entertainment than anything else.  Especially in the new NHL where parity reigns supreme.  The truth is that there really isn't a team in the league that's dominant from top to bottom.  Many teams have overwhelming strengths.  Yet they all have fairly significant weaknesses as well.  Ultimately, the last team standing in June of 2008 will be determined primarily by hot goaltending and good health as opposed to any other factor(s).  That being said, I've prepared my top five lists.  I've got two lists for you here:  (1) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Win The Stanley Cup This Season and (2) The Top Five Reasons Why The Rangers Will Not Win The Stanley Cup This Season.  Here we go!

I.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHYTHE RANGERS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  Offense.  This team is stacked up front.  The Rangers are quite possibly the deepest offensive team in the league.  Jagr, Gomez, Drury, Shanahan, Straka, Avery and Prucha.  That list doesn't even include Marcel Hossa (who came alive late last season) or the up and coming rookie Nigel Dawes (who may very well get a shot with the big club this season).  The Rangers have scorers on each of their top three lines. 

2.  Henrik Lundqvist.  He's the King on Broadway.  After a slow start last season he really came alive to carry the team through their unbelievable run down the stretch.  He gives the team the confidence it needs to play an offensively oriented game.  When he's hot he gets into shooters' heads forcing them to try to pick their spots carefully, too carefully!

3.  Jaromir Jagr.  Yes he fits into reason number 1 (offense).  But Jagr is literally in a category of his own!  He's an old school super star who can literally change the course of a game (or a series) by himself.  To me Jagr is the Rangers' nuclear weapon.  His skill and game breaking ability are virtually unparalleled.  If opponents don't match up against him, he'll break the game open.  If they do match up against him, they'll be forced to pay less attention to the team's other stars.  A no loose situation for the Rangers!  Most importantly, he's in great shape and appears to be determined to win it all. 

4.  Transition/Speed.  This team can fly.  Period.  Of the top 9 forwards, 7 of them have serious wheels:  Jagr, Drury, Straka, Gomez, Prucha, Callahan and Avery.  As weak as the defense is, Roszival, Mara, Tyutin, Pock and Staal all have respectable mobility.  They can all make outlet passes as well.  We're obviously not going to have flashbacks of Leetch and Zubov, however, this team should be able to get down the ice in a hurry.

5.  Grit.  The Rangers are not what you would call a big bruising team.  Nonetheless, they do possess a handsome serving of team grit.  Avery loves the rough stuff.  Drury plays a fearless in your face style.  Shanny's big and strong (albeit slow!) and he's earned high marks for dropping the gloves in the preseason to stand up for teammates.  Jagr may not be tough but he's absolutely huge.  Trying to get body position on him will wear out even the biggest and strongest opponents.  Prucha and Callahan are fearless cannonballs.  Dubinsky is a big strong physical presence.  Even Gomez has good size (5'11" 200lbs.) and is used to playing Atlantic division hockey.  Hollweg is a physical presence.  Betts is a gritty player and Colton Orr is a legitimate heavyweight.  On defense, Roszival and Tyutin played like warriors down the stretch.  Although neither is overly physical, they both have good size and know how to use their bodies.  Strudwick is a tough player.  Staal has good size (although he is young and has some filling out to do) and he seems to be proficient at playing the angles well.  Malik has great size... forget it!   The bottom line is that although no one will mistake this team for the old Broad Street Bullies, the Broadway Blueshirts can handle the physical demands of a long and grueling Stanley Cup tournament.      

II.  THE TOP FIVE REASONS WHY THE RANGERS WILL NOT WIN THE STANLEY CUP THIS SEASON:

1.  CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY, CHEMISTRY.  The Rangers' opening night roster will apparently feature up to 10 new players who were not on the opening night roster last season.  That's a huge turnover.  An adjustment period seems inevitable.  If that happens, it's not outside the realm of possibility for the Rangers to find themselves in the same boat they were in last season: being forced to play playoff hockey in February just to qualify for the posteason.  The Rangers' offense is their strength, yet we don't even know if the forwards will form a cohesive unit.  The Gomez-Jagr experiment has already been put on the back burner (for now) and the season hasn't even started!  Chemistry makes the Rangers' offense a double edged sword: it could turn out to be tops in the league or it could wind up being far less then the sum of its (very significant) parts. 

2.  Defense.  Enough said!

3.  #2 Goalie.  Right now there is none.  At least not an NHLer.  Even though Lundqvist is expected to play the lion's share of games, it is very important to have a reliable back up.  It's one thing to play 70 games a season because you are an elite goaltender who can and should carry that kind of a load.  It's a very different thing to play 70 games in a season in part because there is no adequate back up.  The latter creates a lot of unnecessary stress and pressure.  Goaltending is already the most psychologically grueling position in the sport, Hank doesn't need any extra adversity. 

4.  The "Kid" Line.  The 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or......  Dubinsky may prove ill suited to handle the pressure of anchoring an important line for a contending team in his rookie season.  Callahan was impressive down the stretch, but he's also a rookie having played a grand total of 24 NHL games in his career (regular season and playoffs combined).  2/3's of the Rangers' kid line has a grand total of 30 games of NHL experience between them (regular season and playoffs combined).  Then there's the Prucha factor: he looks ready to break out.  Is it in his best interests to be lined up with two gritty rookies rather then on a more offensively oriented line?  Prucha had great chemistry with Jagr as a rookie.  Why not put him on Jagr's left and move Straka to the left of Dubinsky?  The Rangers don't really have a pure goal scorer in the prime of his career right now.  Prucha could be that guy.  But will he be while playing with Dubinsky and Callahan?  Like I said, the 3rd line for the Rangers could turn out to be the energetic, cycling and responsible line that this team desperately needs it to be.  Or...... 

5.  Specialty Teams/Flow.  Another double edged sword for the Rangers.  On paper, the specialty teams look to be pretty impressive.  However, could this be a case of relying on too few players to do too many things?  Drury will get significant time on the power play, penalty kill and even strength.  Ditto for Shanny. Ditto for Avery.  Ditto for Straka.  Maybe even a ditto for Gomez.  In fact, Blair Betts seems to be the only player who will not be asked to "do it all".  In the "New NHL" a lot of time is spent on special teams play.  If many of the teams top players on on the ice killing penalties, who does Renney send out for that very important first even strength shift? Jagr will be rested, but Straka and Drury won't be.  Gomez may be rested but Shanny and Avery won't be.  Renney will be forced to mix and match his lines which hurts the teams' flow.  The same thing will happen after power plays.  Apparently, Renney has recognized this potential problem and has decided to keep his top two lines primarily intact for power plays.  That will make it easier for him (although certainly not easy) to continue rolling his lines after the power play is over.  You might think that I'm being hyper sensitive here, but these little things make a big difference in a long season and an even longer (in some respects!) playoff tournament.      

It should be a great season in New York.  Here we go!                

Someone's Got To Step Up

We all know that two of the biggest keys for the Rangers' upcoming season are goaltending and chemistry.  Lundqvist has to continue to stand on his head.  Not just because goaltenders are the most important players for any team (especially in the playoffs).  Not just because the Rangers' defense is thin and Lundqvist will have to erase their inevitable mistakes.  But also because the Rangers will probably experience some serious growing pains throughout the season as their new faces struggle to adjust.  Lundqvist will be called upon to keep the ship afloat during those periods. 

The other obvious key to the season is team chemistry.  If the team can adjust and come together quickly, it should be a great season on Broadway.  If not, well...... 

There is, however, a third key:  Someone's got to step up.  I'm not talking about Lundqvist, Jagr, Gomez or Drury.  Those players are expected to step up.  They must step up or the Rangers' will not have serious success.  I'm talking about a "surprise" performance. 

Two seasons ago the Rangers surprised the hockey world by qualifying for the playoffs.  Obviously Jagr was a huge reason for their success. The other main ingredient that season was a "surprise" performance by a young goalie named Henrik Lundqvist.  Let's not forget the 30 goal outburst from a relatively unheralded rookie named Petr Prucha.  How about the high energy, high octane performance from the HMO line (Hollweg, Moore and Ortmeyer) that came as a very pleasant "surprise".  Two seasons ago, Jagr was phenomenal.  He gets paid to do that!  Ditto for Straka and Nylander.  The "surprise" performances, however, were vital in putting the Rangers over the top. 

Let's take a look at last season.  The big two (Jagr and Lundqvist) started slowly.  Not surprisingly the Rangers floundered.  Then Sather pulls the trigger and acquires the controversial Sean Avery.  People expected Avery to add some much needed grit and attitude.  No one expected the "surprise" performance that followed.   Remember Jagr's quote echoed shortly after the Avery trade, "We need more than Sean Avery right now".  That pretty much summed up the league's sentiment on Avery's worth.  No one expected Avery to totally re-energize the club the way he did.  In hindsight, however, it was Avery's "surprise" performance that helped propel the Rangers into the playoffs.  On a much smaller scale the Rangers' also got a "surprise" performance from Ryan Callahan.  His determined play allowed Renney to ice a highly competitive and energetic third line of Prucha, Cullen and Callahan.

So like I said, someone's got to step up this season.  We all know that the top players must perform in order for this team to succeed.  There's just no getting around that.  However, we also need a pleasant "surprise" or two (or three!).  So here's my list of the potential unsung "surprise" heroes to watch for this season:

1.  Petr Prucha.  I love this kid.  He's skilled, gritty and fearless.  If Prucha can breakout with a 30 something goal performance (not at all unreasonable), he'll add tremendous balance to the Rangers' forward lines.  The stumbling block for Prucha will be ice time.  Prucha doesn't seem to be a favorite of Renney's.  If he gets buried on the third line without meaningful power play minutes it will be hard for him to produce.  If he gets stuck with a rookie centerman like Dubinsky, it'll be even harder to produce! 

2.  Marcel Hossa.  He's not one of my favorites.  There's even some talk of him possibly not making the team!  However, it's hard to ignore his combination of size, strength and skill.  More importantly, Renney seems to really believe in this kid.  For whatever reason, he'll probably get more of an opportunity to shine than Prucha.  If Hossa responds with a 25-30 goal performance, he may well be the Rangers' "surprise" contributor this season.   

3.  Marc Staal.  I didn't get to watch him play much thus far (a bunch of the pre-season games fell out during Jewish holidays).  However, the people that did get to see him play are saying good things.  Defense is a tough position to learn and in a perfect world, Staal would get a chance to shine in Hartford before making the jump to Broadway.  This is NOT a perfect world and the Rangers' blue line is very far from perfect.  So it looks like Staal will at least start the season in New York.  If this kid steps up he could provide much needed talent and stability to the Rangers Achilles heel.   

4.  Blair Betts.  No that's not a typo!  Everyone has Betts cemented into the role of fourth line center.  The Rangers' line combinations are definitely a work in progress.  It wouldn't shock me to see Betts work his way to the third line.  He plays hard, he skates fairly well and he's not at all lost in the offensive zone.  Admittedly, this is not plan "A" for the Rangers third line.  However, don't discount the possibility of Betts stepping up and solidifying the third line. 

5.  Nigel Dawes.  Dawes may not survive the final cuts which should be announced soon.  I was unimpressed by what I saw of him thus far (although admittedly, I didn't see much!)  He seems to get knocked off the puck too easily.  That being said, there's no denying that he's got the skill and determination to succeed.  If the Rangers can figure out a way to get him some quality minutes he could be this years pleasant "surprise". 

6.  Brandon Dubinsky.  As of now (with the final cuts not yet being announced), Dubinsky looks to have the inside track as the team's third line center.  I like the kid.  He's big and strong and not afraid to mix it up.  Personally, I wouldn't give him the job though.  The Rangers need a quality, reliable third line center.  First, the team will already rely too heavily on its top two lines, those guys need a rest from time to time.  In order to give them that rest, the team needs a solid third line.  Second, Prucha and Callahan look to be on the verge of break out years.  Is it fair to either player to saddle them with a rookie centerman not known for his offensive capability?  Don't get me wrong, I like Dubinsky.  He's my kind of player.  However, I'm not sure that the timing is right.  Nonetheless, if given the opportunity I hope he can "surprise" me. 

It should be a great season on Broadway.  Especially if someone unexpected can step it up.