The Hockey Rabbi

The Kaspar Quandry (VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM)

So Darius Kasparitis shows up at camp some 20 pounds lighter and ready to blaze a comeback trail to New York.  That would be great news if it weren't for that little thing called the salary cap!  With almost no room left under the all important cap the Rangers can ill afford to retain Kaspar and his nearly $3 million annual salary.  So what's a team to do?  Trade him?  Send him to Hartford? 

OPTION #1:  TRADE HIM:

The easiest thing for Slats to do would be to trade Kaspar.  Move him for whatever the team could get.  However, this option is probably unlikely: Kaspar missed all of last season.  He reportedly came to camp out of shape which apparently had something to do with personal issues he was dealing with at the time.  Given his age and his salary, it's unlikely an NHL club would be willing to take a risk on him.  In today's day and age, $3m is too much money to spend on an old d-man who missed a season due to personal problems.

OPTION #2:  SEND HIM TO HARTFORD:

Many observers are predicting that this scenario is likely to materialize.  I'm not so sure!  After struggling to read through the relevant parts of the C.B.A. (which is no easy task!) it appears as though section 50.9(g)(ii) sets forth that if a player like Kaspar is sent to the minors he must first clear waivers.  Any NHL club may then claim him off of waivers.  The claiming club would only be responsible for 1/2 of his salary while the Rangers would be responsible for the other 1/2 (and, of course, the 1/2 that the Rangers would be responsible for would count against the teams cap charge this season). 

At almost $3m per season, Kaspar's probably not worth the risk to many NHL clubs.  However, at just under $1.5m per season, Kaspar may very well be worth it.  Let's not forget that Kaspar is in the final year of his contract.  Therefore, a claiming club would only be taking a short term and relatively "cheap" risk. 

Then there's the Oiler$ factor:  Krazy Kevin Lowe targeted Dustin Penner in Anaheim in part because he knew the Ducks had cap issues.  If the Ducks matched the offer sheet, Lowe would have successfully financially handcuffed one of his rivals.  If the Ducks failed to match (which is what actually happened) the Oiler$ would have successfully obtained their desired player.  A no lose situation for The Krazy One.  Guess what folks, the Rangers have cap issues of their own.  They passed on Peca because they felt that the $1-1.5m he would have cost was not worth the risk.  Would anyone be shocked to see a rival club like the Icelanders claim Kaspar just to stick it to the Rangers?  How about the Devils who are surely still feeling the sting from the Scott Gomez defection.  A rival GM with cap room could certainly see the Kaspar situation as a no lose situation:  if Kaspar rebounds he's well worth the $1.5m for just one season, if he doesn't rebound...well....it was just $1.5m for one season a worthwhile investment considering that it contributed to the hated Ranger$' cap concerns. 

Surely, Slats & Co. are aware of this possibility.  That's why it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Malik or Mara get traded if Kaspar looks ready to rejoin the big club.   

**UPDATE** Thanks to dimanyr for pointing out that the 50% cap charge would only apply if a team claimed Kaspar off of re-entry waivers (i.e. if the Rangers tried recalling kaspar from Hartford to the big club).  I e-mailed John Dellapina to ask him to clarify this point and, as usual, John kindly responded almost immediately.  According to John, the Rangers would only be on the hook for 1/2 of Kaspar's salary if he was claimed off of re-entry waivers.  Sorry for the confusion and thanks to dimanyr and John Dellapina (Rangers' beat writer for the NY Daily News.  Check out the link to John's blog in my blogroll!).    

SIGNING ALERT: DUCKS LET PENNER WALK! (UPDATED)

TSN .CA reports that the Ducks have decided not to match the ridiculous offer sheet the Oiler$ have given the power forward.  Click here for more info.

In New York Rangers news:  Sam Weinman reports that the Rangers have officially locked up 19 year old prospect and centerman Artem Anisimov.  Click here for Sam's post.

Gomez/Drury Analysis Part II: What About The Other Options?

     So the Rangers just committed huge money to Scott Gomez and Chris Drury.  Today's issue in our continuing analysis of the signings is whether the Rangers had any cheaper and/or better options available to them. 

     Before we get into the details, let's lay a foundation:  First, I believe the Rangers have a very special two year window of opportunity within which to win a Stanley Cup (or two!).  Therefore, management is wholly justified in taking an aggressive approach in an attempt to capitalize on this opportunity.  Second, this window of opportunity revolves around Jaromir Jagr.  Jagr is the member of an endangered species in the NHL: the true Franchise Player.  He is a truly gifted offensive force.  His skill often causes opponents to change their game plan in an attempt to neutralize him.  Since he is our franchise player, in order to maximize his impact and team chemistry, the team must be "built" around him, i.e. an offensive up-tempo team.  There is no question that the Rangers defense is suspect.  As much as we needed to shore up our center ice position, we also need a number one d-man.  However, in a salary cap world where money is an issue, you can't address all your needs.  You have to make choices.  Since the team is built around Jagr, I believe that the first priority has to be to solidify the offense (as a side note, as justified as "going for it all" is for this franchise, management still has to preserve the future.  That's another reason why I believe that focusing on forwards was the correct approach for this club:  the Rangers have some excellent prospects on defense.  Going out and signing veteran defenseman to huge contracts would eat up the ice time these prospects need in order to properly develop).  Now that we've got the foundation in place, let's get back to the question: was signing Gomez and Drury the best option or were there other cheaper and/or better alternatives available?

     The first place management should have looked was within.  Does the team have any prospects in the system that could play a significant role as a first or second line center on a Stanley Cup contending team within the next season or two?  To me, the answer is no.  The Rangers do not have any "blue chip" prospects at the center ice position.  Certainly no one who could step in as a legitimate first or second line guy come playoff time.  I'm not knocking our prospects, I'm simply being realistic.  If you want to win the cup, you can't turn one of your top two offensive lines over to a "B" level prospect.  Since we don't have anyone in the system to take the spot, management has to look outside the club for options. 

     Trades are tough, because you've got to give in order to get.  The team would end up weakening itself at one position in order to get stronger at another.  A team like the Rangers, which relies so heavily on Jagr, doesn't really have the depth necessary to trade for a top center.  Additionally, how many top line center iceman are available.  Rumors swirl about Patrick Marleu, Vinny Lecavalier and/or Brad Richards.  Our most trade-able asset is probably Al Montoya ( a "blue chip" goaltending prospect).  San Jose doesn't need a goalie prospect (they've got solid goaltending and they want to win NOW, they're not looking to develop a goalie).  Tampa, on the other hand needs a goalie.  I'd love Vinny but could we get him for Al Montoya?  Definitely not.  The pot would have to be sweetened considerably.  However, if the Rangers "sweeten the pot" we create a weakness at a different position(s).  Obviously, that doesn't work.  What about Richards?  rumor has it that Tampa would love to relive cap pressure by trading away either Martin St. Louis or Richards.  Perhaps they'd be desperate enough to trade Richards for a package highlighted by Montoya.  But does that make sense for the Rangers?  Why waste one of your few top trading chips (remember, the presence of Lundqvist makes Montoya expendable without creating a hole in the goaltendong position- especially since the Rangers drafted another goalie with their second pick in this seasons draft), on Brad Richards and his $7.8m cap charge when you can sign Gomez for a $7.3m cap charge and use your trading chip to strengthen a different position?  That leaves us with the double edged sword of unrestricted free agency!

     So we're left with going the free agency route.  The first question is, wouldn't it have been better to resign Nylander and then target either Drury or Gomez.  Why sign both players for over $7m each?  The savings we would have received by resigning Nylander could have been applied to a much needed defenseman.  The reality is that the Rangers would have saved about $2.5m per year by resigning Nylander (Washington gave him nearly $5m per year for four years).  $2.5m per year is not enough to sign an impact defenseman in todays market.  More importantly, had the Rangers matched Washington's offer they'd be paying Nylander nearly $5m per year until the guy was pushing 40 years old.  Not a smart idea, both Gomez and Drury are significantly younger.  The Rangers made the right call letting Nylander walk.

  The next question is, weren't there any other free agents the Rangers could have signed for less money and shorter contract terms?  Of course!  But before we jump to conclusions, let's look at the players individually: 

     Scott Gomez:  The Rangers need a legitimate first line center.  They don't have one in the system.  They certainly don't have one who will be ready to contribute meaningfully during the Jagr Window.  Gomez fits the bill and he's only 27.  A lot of people say that signing unrestricted free agents to huge contracts is a recipe for disaster and it rarely works from a historical perspective.  But how many big time UFA's were signed at the age of 27?  Yes we signed him to a long contract, however, at the expiration of his contract he'll still be younger than Nylander is right now! Yes we paid him huge dollars but everyone knows that UFA contracts are often higher than usual (that's why they're not used as comparables during salary arbitration). 

     Chris Drury:  I'm much more skeptical about this one!  Don't get me wrong, I love the guy as a player.  However,  he is on the wrong side of 30 (albeit not by much) and he is, at best, a second line player.  We're paying an awful lot of money for a second line center!  However, I do give Sather the benefit of the doubt on this one because: (1) he is the best option for the job during the Jagr Window and (2) the Rangers long term cap outlook is not nearly as bleak as some would suggest (we'll get to that in a later post). 

     So we've established that Gomez and Drury were the best options in this years free agent class.  But what about next years class?  Maybe next year would have presented better alternatives?  After all, the Jagr window will last at least two seasons.  Who knows, maybe Jagr will play a third season as well?  Did it make sense to tie up the top two center positions now, or should we have kept an opening available for free agent center iceman next year or the year after that?  To answer that question, I'll give you a team by team breakdown of notable free agent forwards expected to become available in the 2-3 years (I got the info from nhlnumbers.com).  I think you'll see that for the most part, Gomez and Drury are the best options available. (The list contains the players name, position, date of birth and the year in which his current contract expires along with my comments in italics):

Calgary:

None.

Colorado:

Joe Sakic,  Center, July 7, 1969,  current contract expires at the end of the 2007-08 season.  He'll be too old.

Edmonton:

None.

Minnesota:

Marian Gaborik, Winger, February 14, 1982, Current contract expires at the end of the 2008-09 season.  I don't see Minnesota letting him go.  Additionally, the Rangers are stocked at the wing.  Finally, the Jagr Window will be closed.

Pavel Demitra, Winger, November 29, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Not a centerman, old, not nearly as good of a fit as the guys we got.

Vancouver:

Markus Naslund, Winger, July 30, 1973, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  See analysis for Pavel Demitra!

Sedin Twins, September 26, 1980, current contracts expire following the 2008-09 season.  Probably too late for the Jagr Window.  only one of them plays center but they'll probably insist on signing as a package. 

Brendan Morrison, Center, August 15, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  He'll be older then both guys we signed and he's not in their league.

Anaheim:

Todd Bertuzzi, Winger, February 2, 1975, Current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Wrong position, probably too late for the Jagr Window, he'll be too old and he's already got serious injury problems.

Rob Neidermayer, Center, December 28, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  He'll be too old, probably too late for Jagr window, he's not nearly as good as either player we signed.

Dallas:

None.

Los Angeles:

None.

Phoenix:

None.

San Jose:

Patrick Marleau, Center, September 15, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  He's a good one! I don't see S.J. letting him go for nothing.  If they somehow did, the bidding would be fierce as the pickings will be much slimmer next off-season for teams in the free agent hunt for center-men.  Would you risk loosing the Jagr window to try to sign a guy who might not even make it to free agency?  I wouldn't.

Chicago:

Martin Havlat, Winger, April 19, 1981, current contract expires after the 2008-09 season.  Great player! But he's not a centerman, we'd probably miss the Jagr Window and it's very unlikely that he'll reach free agency: G-d knows Chicago has no cap issues! and I don't see them letting this guy walk.

Columbus:

Sergei Federov, Center, December 13, 1969, current contract expires following the 2007-08 season.  You guys can figure this one out!

Detroit:

Henrik Zetterberg, Winger, October 9, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  See the comments for Havlat, minus the cap issue joke!

Nashville:

J.P. Dumont, Winger, April 1, 1978, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  This guy doesn't address the teams needs. 

David Legwand, Center, August 17, 1980, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  This guy doesn't compare to the guys we signed.  Would you hang your hat on David Legwand?

St. Louis:

Keith Tkachuk,  why did I even list him?   

Doug Weight, Center, January 21, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  No comment!!!

Boston:

None.

Buffalo:

Tim Conolly, Center, May 7, 1981, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Probably too late for the Jagr window.  I wouldn't put the plans for a victory parade on hold for two years to try to get this guy.

Ales Kotalik, Winger, December 23, 1978, current contract expires following the 2008-09 season.  See my comments for Conolly. Also, this guy plays the wrong position.  However, I'd consider signing him just for his first name (that's for you Moss)!

Montreal:

Saku Koivu, Center, November 23, 1974, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  You can figure this out.

Alex Kovalev, Winger, February 24, 1973, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Ditto!

Ottawa:

Danny Heatley, Winger, January 21, 1981, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  I love this guy! So does every G.M. in the league, that's why I don't see him hitting the market.  I wouldn't pass up on Gomez or Drury to leave space available for him because (1) I don't think he'll really be available and (2) we could still sign him if he becomes available (I'll be writing a post regarding the Rangers long term CAP outlook shortly)  Even though he's a winger and we don't need those in the foreseeable future, Heatley's the kind of a guy you get no matter what if you can do so.

Toronto (Eh!- that's another one for Moss- and thedirtyboy!)

Mats Sundin, Center, February 13, 1971, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  You get the picture!

New Jersey:

Brian Gionta, Winger, January 18, 1979, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Let's see, Scott Gomez or Brian Gionta? hmmm...

New York Isles:

Miro Satan, Winger, October 22, 1974, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Why would anyone want to leave Long Island?!?!

Philadelphia:

None.

Pittsburgh:

Evgeni Malkin, Center, July 31, 1986, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.

Sidney Crosby, Center, August 7, 1987, current contract expires following 2007-08 season, see comments below.

Jordan Staal, Center, October 10, 1988, current contract expires following 2008-09 season, see comments below.

The above three players will be RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS upon the expiration of their respective contracts.  I mention them here because it's possible that one of them ( no not Crosby and probably not Malkin either) will have to be traded.  I'd love to land any one of them.  However, this is pure speculation and if I were Sather I certainly wouldn't pass up on an opportunity to win the cup with Gomez and Drury in order to be prepared for the possibility that one of these guys might be put on the trading block. 

Ryan Malone, Winger, December 1, 1979, current contract expires following 2007-08 season. 

Atlanta

Marian Hossa, Winger, January 12, 1979, contract expires following 2007-08 season.  IF he becomes a free agent he'll get huge offers (even though he forgets to suit up in  the playoffs!)  Would I love to have him anyway? Of course.  Does he fill a Rangers need? No.  'Nuff said.

Bobby Holik, 'Nuff said!

Carolina:

Erik Cole, Winger, November 6, 1978, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Yawn.

Florida:

None.

Tampa Bay:

Vinny Lecavalier, Center, April 21, 1980, current contract expires following 2008-09 season.  Even if he makes it to free agency it would be tough to land him.  Go through my list, how many quality centerman did you see in Vinny's year?  This season you had three somewhat evenly matched centerman and a bunch of lower level guys who could play.  The competition for them was fierce.  What do you think will happen when the supply of quality players is significantly less?

Vaclav Prospal, Center, February 17, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Yawn.

Chris Gratton, Center, July 5, 1975, current contract expires following 2007-08 season.  Bigger Yawn.

After reviewing this list, I think it's safe to say that Gomez and Drury were the best options.  I'm not giving my stamp of approval just yet, there's still more analysis to be done!  Until next time....Good night and G-d bless.               

News & Notes

Here are some recent Ranger related signings:

Michael Nylander signs with Washington for 4 years $19.5m.  The caps are crazy.  The man is about 35 years old.  Just to put it in perspective, Gomez will be younger than Nylander is now when his 7 year Contract with the Rangers expires.  Yes Nylander is a good player.  Yes he should help the Caps for 1-2 years.  NO HE IS NOT WORTH THIS CONTRACT. 

Todd Bertuzzi signs with the Ducks for 2 years $8m.  If he's healthy and regains even some of his touch, Anaheim will be an absolutely miserable opponent for each and every team in the league.  Especially if Neidermayer sticks around.  If he's not healthy or if he can't find his game, Brian Burke is going to regret wasting the cap space.  The saving grace is that it's only a 2 year contract. 

Zubrus signs with Jersey for 6 years $20.4.  Zubrus has never lived up to expectations.  He's got the skill and the size but the on ice product is somehow less than the sum of its parts.  To add insult to injury, he's injury prone (no pun intended!).  In today's UFA market, $3.4m per season doesn't seem like much.  However, when you've committed to paying it for 6 years it could turn out to be a lot if the guy fizzles.  I really don't get Lou.  His club is moving to a new arena.  They just lost their #1 centerman to the hated NY Rangers.   His fans are livid, and Lou goes out and signs Zubrus?!?!  Maybe he's got something bigger up his sleeve.

Karel Rachunek signs with Jersey for 1 year $1.5m.    Let's hope this wasn't the "something bigger up his sleeve"!  Listen, I kind of liked Rachunek, but Lou's got to get with the program.  Most of the time a G.M. has to make decisions based on hockey alone.  Sometimes, a franchise has to make an entertainment decision.  Fact: NJ doesn't consistently sell out at home even when they're legitimate contenders.  Fact:  The Devils are moving into a new arena this season.  Fact:  The Devils need to generate interest and excitement in their club in order to sell tickets and make some money so that they don't have to be out bid for their own players all the time.  Fact:  The Devils just lost their #1 center and their #1 defenseman.  Fact:  The Devils have (thus far) responded to those major losses by signing Danius Zubrus and Karel Rachunek.  You do the math.

Brad Stuart signs with L.A. for 1 year $3.5m. I must be missing something here, this actually seems like a great signing for......L.A.?!?!.  The salary is not outrageous and it's not a lifetime contract.  As a Ranger fan, this one hurts.  We could have used a guy like Stuart and his price was as reasonable as it comes.  Couldn't we have traded Malik for a bag of pucks to free up $2.5m and scrounged for the rest?

Good night and G-d bless.